RACE 23 / 36 2025 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING

Iowa SpeedwayIowa Corn 350 Powered by Ethanol

DateSunday, August 3, 2025

Track TypeShort Track

Field37 drivers

SHORT TRACK

Iowa Speedway Updated 2026-03-17 08:56

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-03-17 08:56

Best by Expected Points · Win 43.4%

Kyle Larson • #5 Hendrick Motorsports

Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P3).

Lowest DNF risk: William Byron (3.3%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Kyle Larson

Win 43.4% • Top-5 69% • EP 7.01

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

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Safest Play

William Byron

Top-10 prob 82% • DNF 3.3%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

◦ Subscriber

Upside Driver

Alex Bowman

Win prob 21.4% • Started P16

Risk Flag

Ross Chastain

DNF prob 24.3%

Race Confidence

HIGH • 91/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of short track

91/100

HIGH

Short ovals reward consistency and qualifying position. Model has historically been most accurate at this track type.

Win pick hit rate

17%

Top-5 hit rate

60%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.57

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#5 Hendrick Motorsports

Kyle Larson

Win 43.4%

Top-5 69%

Exp pts 7.01

Start P3

Driver ELO 1515

Track-type ELO 1513

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P3).

#24 Hendrick Motorsports

William Byron

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#24 Hendrick Motorsports

William Byron

Win 23.0%

Top-5 64%

Exp pts 6.40

Start P2

Driver ELO 1507

Track-type ELO 1495

Why this pick Why: front-row start (P2), strong organization rating, recent strong start-finish gain at this track type.

#19 Joe Gibbs Racing

Chase Briscoe

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#19 Joe Gibbs Racing

Chase Briscoe

Win 9.2%

Top-5 63%

Exp pts 5.71

Start P1

Driver ELO 1505

Track-type ELO 1515

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, front-row start (P1), strong organization rating.

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#5Kyle Larson

43.4%

#24William Byron

23.0%

#48Alex Bowman

— SUB

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#5Kyle Larson

56.0%

#24William Byron

43.4%

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#48Alex Bowman

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#5Kyle Larson

68.7%

#24William Byron

63.8%

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#24William Byron

81.6%

#5Kyle Larson

80.2%

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

Best Value

#5Kyle Larson

6.71

#24William Byron

6.19

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#1Ross Chastain

24.3%

#60Ryan Preece

23.4%

#34Todd Gilliland

— SUB

#47Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

— SUB

#66Joey Gase

— SUB

05 Full Projections

37 drivers • top 5 free37 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P3	7.01	43.4%	56.0%	69%	80%	4.3%	1515	27.6	—	—
2	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P2	6.40	23.0%	43.4%	64%	82%	3.3%	1507	27.6	—	—
3	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P1	5.71	9.2%	36.3%	63%	75%	4.4%	1505	27.1	—	—
4	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	P8	5.69	21.1%	33.8%	46%	70%	5.7%	1507	27.6	—	—
5	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	P6	5.64	19.2%	33.7%	48%	70%	3.7%	1511	23.7	—	—
6	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	66	Joey Gase	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	7.01	43.4%	69%	80%	89%	96%	4.3%
2	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	6.40	23.0%	64%	82%	92%	97%	3.3%
3	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	5.71	9.2%	63%	75%	86%	96%	4.4%
4	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	5.69	21.1%	46%	70%	89%	94%	5.7%
5	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	5.64	19.2%	48%	70%	87%	96%	3.7%
6	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	66	Joey Gase	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P3	7.01	1515	1513	27.6	+16.0	+7.0
2	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P2	6.40	1507	1495	27.6	+17.0	-3.5
3	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P1	5.71	1505	1515	27.1	+18.0	-3.5
4	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	P8	5.69	1507	1513	27.6	+11.0	-1.5
5	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	P6	5.64	1511	1511	23.7	+13.0	+9.3
6	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	66	Joey Gase	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-03-17 08:56