RACE 22 / 36 2025 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING

Indianapolis Motor SpeedwayBrickyard 400 Presented by PPG

DateSunday, July 27, 2025

Track TypeIntermediate

Field39 drivers

INTERMEDIATE

Indianapolis Motor Speedway Updated 2026-03-17 08:56

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-03-17 08:56

Best by Expected Points · Win 35.8%

Tyler Reddick • #45 23XI Racing

Why: strong track-type ELO, front-row start (P4), recent strong start-finish gain at this track type.

Lowest DNF risk: William Byron (6.8%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Tyler Reddick

Win 35.8% • Top-5 63% • EP 6.42

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

◦ Subscriber

Safest Play

Tyler Reddick

Top-10 prob 76% • DNF 10.7%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

◦ Subscriber

Upside Driver

Brad Keselowski

Win prob 22.9% • Started P14

Risk Flag

Noah Gragson

DNF prob 26.4%

Race Confidence

MEDIUM • 69/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of intermediate

69/100

MEDIUM

Intermediates reward downforce-era setups and clean stops. Model performs reliably here.

Win pick hit rate

25%

Top-5 hit rate

37%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.48

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#45 23XI Racing

Tyler Reddick

Win 35.8%

Top-5 63%

Exp pts 6.42

Start P4

Driver ELO 1508

Track-type ELO 1512

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, front-row start (P4), recent strong start-finish gain at this track type.

#24 Hendrick Motorsports

William Byron

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#24 Hendrick Motorsports

William Byron

Win 23.8%

Top-5 64%

Exp pts 6.05

Start P6

Driver ELO 1496

Track-type ELO 1493

Why this pick Why: top-10 starting spot (P6), strong organization rating, recent strong start-finish gain at this track type.

#2 Team Penske

Austin Cindric

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#2 Team Penske

Austin Cindric

Win 14.8%

Top-5 47%

Exp pts 5.13

Start P10

Driver ELO 1505

Track-type ELO 1492

Why this pick Why: top-10 starting spot (P10), strong organization rating, recent strong start-finish gain at this track type.

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#45Tyler Reddick

35.8%

#24William Byron

23.8%

#6Brad Keselowski

— SUB

#23Bubba Wallace

— SUB

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#45Tyler Reddick

49.6%

#24William Byron

44.0%

#2Austin Cindric

— SUB

#23Bubba Wallace

— SUB

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#24William Byron

64.2%

#45Tyler Reddick

63.3%

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#2Austin Cindric

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#45Tyler Reddick

76.1%

#24William Byron

72.5%

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#2Austin Cindric

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

Best Value

#45Tyler Reddick

5.73

#24William Byron

5.65

#2Austin Cindric

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#23Bubba Wallace

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#4Noah Gragson

26.4%

#21Josh Berry

26.0%

#62Jesse Love

— SUB

#34Todd Gilliland

— SUB

#48Alex Bowman

— SUB

05 Full Projections

39 drivers • top 5 free39 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	P4	6.42	35.8%	49.6%	63%	76%	10.7%	1508	21.9	—	—
2	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P6	6.05	23.8%	44.0%	64%	72%	6.8%	1496	27.1	—	—
3	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	P10	5.13	14.8%	30.8%	47%	62%	10.3%	1505	23.4	—	—
4	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P13	4.98	12.6%	30.0%	47%	62%	16.9%	1514	27.1	—	—
5	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	P2	4.92	20.3%	30.6%	41%	57%	14.2%	1511	21.9	—	—
6	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	62	Jesse Love	Beard Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	66	Josh Bilicki	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	78	Katherine Legge	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	6.42	35.8%	63%	76%	84%	89%	10.7%
2	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	6.05	23.8%	64%	72%	84%	93%	6.8%
3	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	5.13	14.8%	47%	62%	81%	90%	10.3%
4	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	4.98	12.6%	47%	62%	79%	83%	16.9%
5	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	4.92	20.3%	41%	57%	75%	86%	14.2%
6	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	62	Jesse Love	Beard Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	66	Josh Bilicki	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	78	Katherine Legge	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	P4	6.42	1508	1512	21.9	+16.0	-6.3
2	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P6	6.05	1496	1493	27.1	+14.0	-9.5
3	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	P10	5.13	1505	1492	23.4	+10.0	-10.3
4	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P13	4.98	1514	1505	27.1	+7.0	-0.7
5	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	P2	4.92	1511	1502	21.9	+18.0	-1.7
6	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	62	Jesse Love	Beard Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	66	Josh Bilicki	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	78	Katherine Legge	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-03-17 08:56