RACE 21 / 36 2025 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING

Dover International SpeedwayAutotrader EchoPark Automotive 400

DateSunday, July 20, 2025

Track TypeShort Track

Field37 drivers

SHORT TRACK

Dover International Speedway Updated 2026-03-17 08:56

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-03-17 08:56

Best by Expected Points · Win 32.9%

Christopher Bell • #20 Joe Gibbs Racing

Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P3).

Best Win odds: Denny Hamlin (35.0%) · Lowest DNF risk: William Byron (3.4%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Christopher Bell

Win 32.9% • Top-5 63% • EP 6.60

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

◦ Subscriber

Safest Play

Christopher Bell

Top-10 prob 78% • DNF 3.8%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

◦ Subscriber

Upside Driver

Kyle Larson

Win prob 21.6% • Started P25

Risk Flag

J.J. Yeley

DNF prob 38.6%

Race Confidence

HIGH • 91/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of short track

91/100

HIGH

Short ovals reward consistency and qualifying position. Model has historically been most accurate at this track type.

Win pick hit rate

17%

Top-5 hit rate

60%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.57

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#20 Joe Gibbs Racing

Christopher Bell

Win 32.9%

Top-5 63%

Exp pts 6.60

Start P3

Driver ELO 1513

Track-type ELO 1511

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P3).

#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win 35.0%

Top-5 58%

Exp pts 6.33

Start P13

Driver ELO 1502

Track-type ELO 1515

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, strong organization rating.

#9 Hendrick Motorsports

Chase Elliott

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#9 Hendrick Motorsports

Chase Elliott

Win 16.3%

Top-5 60%

Exp pts 5.96

Start P1

Driver ELO 1515

Track-type ELO 1506

Why this pick Why: top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P1), strong organization rating.

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

35.0%

#20Christopher Bell

32.9%

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#20Christopher Bell

48.2%

#11Denny Hamlin

46.3%

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#20Christopher Bell

63.5%

#9Chase Elliott

59.7%

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#9Chase Elliott

78.6%

#20Christopher Bell

78.3%

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

Best Value

#20Christopher Bell

6.35

#11Denny Hamlin

5.86

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#44J.J. Yeley

38.6%

#51Cody Ware

19.0%

#47Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

— SUB

#4Noah Gragson

— SUB

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

05 Full Projections

37 drivers • top 5 free37 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P3	6.60	32.9%	48.2%	63%	78%	3.8%	1513	26.3	—	—
2	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P13	6.33	35.0%	46.3%	58%	74%	7.5%	1502	26.3	—	—
3	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	P1	5.96	16.3%	38.0%	60%	79%	5.4%	1515	27.2	—	—
4	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P5	5.72	15.9%	34.1%	52%	72%	3.4%	1511	27.2	—	—
5	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	P4	5.23	17.0%	30.0%	43%	65%	7.6%	1512	21.7	—	—
6	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	44	J.J. Yeley	NY Racing Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	6.60	32.9%	63%	78%	91%	96%	3.8%
2	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	6.33	35.0%	58%	74%	86%	93%	7.5%
3	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	5.96	16.3%	60%	79%	88%	95%	5.4%
4	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	5.72	15.9%	52%	72%	89%	97%	3.4%
5	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	5.23	17.0%	43%	65%	82%	92%	7.6%
6	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	44	J.J. Yeley	NY Racing Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P3	6.60	1513	1511	26.3	+16.0	+0.8
2	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P13	6.33	1502	1515	26.3	+6.0	+8.8
3	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	P1	5.96	1515	1506	27.2	+18.0	+0.7
4	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P5	5.72	1511	1511	27.2	+14.0	-1.5
5	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	P4	5.23	1512	1504	21.7	+15.0	-1.8
6	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	44	J.J. Yeley	NY Racing Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-03-17 08:56