RACE 20 / 36 2025 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING

Sonoma RacewayToyota / SaveMart 350

DateSunday, July 13, 2025

Track TypeRoad Course

Field37 drivers

ROAD COURSE

Sonoma Raceway Updated 2026-03-17 08:56

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-03-17 08:56

Best by Expected Points · Win 48.8%

Shane van Gisbergen • #88 Trackhouse Racing

Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P1).

Lowest DNF risk: Chase Briscoe (4.5%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Shane van Gisbergen

Win 48.8% • Top-5 60% • EP 6.42

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

◦ Subscriber

Safest Play

Chase Briscoe

Top-10 prob 66% • DNF 4.5%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

◦ Subscriber

Upside Driver

A.J. Allmendinger

Win prob 27.5% • Started P5

Risk Flag

Katherine Legge

DNF prob 20.7%

Race Confidence

HIGH • 78/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L8 of road course

78/100

HIGH

Road courses introduce more variance. Specialists outperform the field; cautions tend to cluster late.

Win pick hit rate

38%

Top-5 hit rate

50%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.49

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#88 Trackhouse Racing

Shane van Gisbergen

Win 48.8%

Top-5 60%

Exp pts 6.42

Start P1

Driver ELO 1515

Track-type ELO 1515

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P1).

#45 23XI Racing

Tyler Reddick

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

Unlock the full race sheet

#45 23XI Racing

Tyler Reddick

Win 36.3%

Top-5 46%

Exp pts 5.71

Start P8

Driver ELO 1514

Track-type ELO 1513

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, top-10 starting spot (P8).

#19 Joe Gibbs Racing

Chase Briscoe

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

Unlock the full race sheet

#19 Joe Gibbs Racing

Chase Briscoe

Win 24.6%

Top-5 52%

Exp pts 5.71

Start P2

Driver ELO 1501

Track-type ELO 1501

Why this pick Why: front-row start (P2), strong organization rating, recent strong start-finish gain at this track type.

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#88Shane van Gisbergen

48.8%

#45Tyler Reddick

36.3%

#48Alex Bowman

— SUB

#16A.J. Allmendinger

— SUB

#1Ross Chastain

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#88Shane van Gisbergen

54.6%

#45Tyler Reddick

41.3%

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#16A.J. Allmendinger

— SUB

#1Ross Chastain

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#88Shane van Gisbergen

60.4%

#19Chase Briscoe

51.5%

#1Ross Chastain

— SUB

#16A.J. Allmendinger

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#1Ross Chastain

70.1%

#88Shane van Gisbergen

67.8%

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

#16A.J. Allmendinger

— SUB

Best Value

#88Shane van Gisbergen

5.73

#19Chase Briscoe

5.45

#48Alex Bowman

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

#1Ross Chastain

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#78Katherine Legge

20.7%

#35Riley Herbst

20.1%

#71Michael McDowell

— SUB

#41Cole Custer

— SUB

#51Cody Ware

— SUB

05 Full Projections

37 drivers • top 5 free37 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	P1	6.42	48.8%	54.6%	60%	68%	10.8%	1515	21.5	—	—
2	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	P8	5.71	36.3%	41.3%	46%	67%	13.4%	1514	21.8	—	—
3	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P2	5.71	24.6%	38.1%	52%	66%	4.5%	1501	25.8	—	—
4	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	P9	5.58	29.2%	36.4%	44%	65%	9.0%	1512	27.6	—	—
5	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	P4	5.57	25.2%	37.0%	49%	70%	12.8%	1511	21.5	—	—
6	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	78	Katherine Legge	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	6.42	48.8%	60%	68%	75%	89%	10.8%
2	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	5.71	36.3%	46%	67%	75%	87%	13.4%
3	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	5.71	24.6%	52%	66%	83%	96%	4.5%
4	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	5.58	29.2%	44%	65%	81%	91%	9.0%
5	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	5.57	25.2%	49%	70%	78%	87%	12.8%
6	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	78	Katherine Legge	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	P1	6.42	1515	1515	21.5	+18.0	-6.7
2	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	P8	5.71	1514	1513	21.8	+11.0	-2.8
3	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P2	5.71	1501	1501	25.8	+17.0	-2.8
4	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	P9	5.58	1512	1510	27.6	+10.0	+2.0
5	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	P4	5.57	1511	1509	21.5	+15.0	-4.5
6	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	78	Katherine Legge	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

32 more drivers behind the paywall.

Full sortable table, all probabilities, CSV download, and the Betting/DFS lenses ship with the Race Week Pass.

Download CSV ◦ subscriber Unlock the full race sheet

Full board.

All 37 drivers, every probability, plus CSV.

Download CSV ↓

Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-03-17 08:56