RACE 19 / 36 2025 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING

Chicago Street CourseGrant Park 165

DateSunday, July 6, 2025

Track TypeRoad Course

Field40 drivers

ROAD COURSE

Chicago Street Course Updated 2026-03-17 08:56

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-03-17 08:56

Best by Expected Points · Win 50.6%

Shane van Gisbergen • #88 Trackhouse Racing

Why: strong track-type ELO, front-row start (P1), recent strong start-finish gain at this track type.

Lowest DNF risk: Joey Logano (4.0%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Shane van Gisbergen

Win 50.6% • Top-5 64% • EP 6.83

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

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Safest Play

Shane van Gisbergen

Top-10 prob 74% • DNF 6.1%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

◦ Subscriber

Upside Driver

Michael McDowell

Win prob 27.7% • Started P2

Risk Flag

Katherine Legge

DNF prob 29.0%

Race Confidence

HIGH • 76/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L10 of road course

76/100

HIGH

Road courses introduce more variance. Specialists outperform the field; cautions tend to cluster late.

Win pick hit rate

30%

Top-5 hit rate

46%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.50

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#88 Trackhouse Racing

Shane van Gisbergen

Win 50.6%

Top-5 64%

Exp pts 6.83

Start P1

Driver ELO 1501

Track-type ELO 1515

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, front-row start (P1), recent strong start-finish gain at this track type.

#54 Joe Gibbs Racing

Ty Gibbs

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#54 Joe Gibbs Racing

Ty Gibbs

Win 15.0%

Top-5 42%

Exp pts 5.21

Start P9

Driver ELO 1509

Track-type ELO 1510

Why this pick Why: top-10 starting spot (P9), strong organization rating, recent strong start-finish gain at this track type.

#8 Richard Childress Racing

Kyle Busch

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#8 Richard Childress Racing

Kyle Busch

Win 18.7%

Top-5 48%

Exp pts 5.15

Start P6

Driver ELO 1503

Track-type ELO 1491

Why this pick Why: top-10 starting spot (P6), recent strong start-finish gain at this track type.

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#88Shane van Gisbergen

50.6%

#71Michael McDowell

27.7%

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

#48Alex Bowman

— SUB

#8Kyle Busch

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#88Shane van Gisbergen

57.4%

#8Kyle Busch

33.5%

#71Michael McDowell

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#88Shane van Gisbergen

64.2%

#19Chase Briscoe

53.3%

#8Kyle Busch

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#88Shane van Gisbergen

73.7%

#54Ty Gibbs

67.7%

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#8Kyle Busch

— SUB

#17Chris Buescher

— SUB

Best Value

#88Shane van Gisbergen

6.41

#54Ty Gibbs

4.89

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#8Kyle Busch

— SUB

#17Chris Buescher

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#78Katherine Legge

29.0%

#33Austin Hill

23.9%

#10Ty Dillon

— SUB

#35Riley Herbst

— SUB

#71Michael McDowell

— SUB

05 Full Projections

40 drivers • top 5 free40 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	P1	6.83	50.6%	57.4%	64%	74%	6.1%	1501	21.7	—	—
2	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	P9	5.21	15.0%	28.5%	42%	68%	6.2%	1509	25.5	—	—
3	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	P6	5.15	18.7%	33.5%	48%	63%	12.6%	1503	21.0	—	—
4	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P5	5.12	5.7%	29.5%	53%	66%	7.3%	1497	25.5	—	—
5	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	P4	4.94	19.5%	29.4%	39%	61%	13.0%	1514	21.7	—	—
6	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	13	Will Brown	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	66	Josh Bilicki	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40	78	Katherine Legge	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	6.83	50.6%	64%	74%	81%	94%	6.1%
2	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	5.21	15.0%	42%	68%	82%	94%	6.2%
3	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	5.15	18.7%	48%	63%	74%	87%	12.6%
4	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	5.12	5.7%	53%	66%	82%	93%	7.3%
5	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	4.94	19.5%	39%	61%	74%	87%	13.0%
6	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	13	Will Brown	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	66	Josh Bilicki	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40	78	Katherine Legge	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	P1	6.83	1501	1515	21.7	+19.5	-8.0
2	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	P9	5.21	1509	1510	25.5	+11.5	-13.2
3	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	P6	5.15	1503	1491	21.0	+14.5	-2.5
4	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P5	5.12	1497	1511	25.5	+15.5	-1.7
5	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	P4	4.94	1514	1503	21.7	+16.5	-4.0
6	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	13	Will Brown	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	66	Josh Bilicki	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40	78	Katherine Legge	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-03-17 08:56