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This Week / Race 18 / 2025 / EchoPark Speedway
RACE 18 / 36 2025 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING

EchoPark SpeedwayQuaker State 400 Available at Walmart

DateSaturday, June 28, 2025
Track TypeIntermediate
Field40 drivers
INTERMEDIATE
EchoPark Speedway Updated 2026-03-17 08:56

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-03-17 08:56
#1
Best by Expected Points · Win 29.4%

William Byron • #24 Hendrick Motorsports

Why: strong organization rating, recent strong start-finish gain at this track type.
Top by every metric this week — Expected Points, Win odds, and DNF avoidance. See full picks →
EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.
Win Profile
William Byron
Win 29.4% • Top-5 72% • EP 6.63
Safest Play
— — — — —
Top-10 prob • DNF risk
◦ Subscriber
Upside Driver
— — — — —
Win prob • Starting grid
◦ Subscriber
Risk Flag
Riley Herbst
DNF prob 26.6%
Race Confidence
MEDIUM • 69/100
Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of intermediate
69/100
MEDIUM
Intermediates reward downforce-era setups and clean stops. Model performs reliably here.
Win pick hit rate
25%
Top-5 hit rate
37%
Rank fit (ρ)
0.48

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP
#24 Hendrick Motorsports
1
William Byron
Win 29.4%
Top-5 72%
Exp pts 6.63
Start P18
Driver ELO 1499
Track-type ELO 1497
Why this pick Why: strong organization rating, recent strong start-finish gain at this track type.
#12 Team Penske
2
Ryan Blaney
Win —
Top-5 —
Exp pts —
Start —
Driver ELO —
Track-type ELO —
Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.
Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#9 Hendrick Motorsports
3
Chase Elliott
Win —
Top-5 —
Exp pts —
Start —
Driver ELO —
Track-type ELO —
Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.
Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber
Best Win Picks
#24William Byron
29.4%
#9Chase Elliott
27.5%
#12Ryan Blaney
— SUB
#6Brad Keselowski
— SUB
#5Kyle Larson
— SUB
Best Top-3 Picks
#24William Byron
50.8%
#12Ryan Blaney
34.1%
#9Chase Elliott
— SUB
#5Kyle Larson
— SUB
#19Chase Briscoe
— SUB
Best Top-5 Picks
#24William Byron
72.2%
#19Chase Briscoe
53.9%
#5Kyle Larson
— SUB
#12Ryan Blaney
— SUB
#11Denny Hamlin
— SUB
Best Top-10 Picks
#24William Byron
78.2%
#12Ryan Blaney
71.5%
#19Chase Briscoe
— SUB
#9Chase Elliott
— SUB
#2Austin Cindric
— SUB
Best Value
#24William Byron
6.28
#9Chase Elliott
5.02
#12Ryan Blaney
— SUB
#2Austin Cindric
— SUB
#48Alex Bowman
— SUB
Highest DNF Risk
#35Riley Herbst
26.6%
#51Cody Ware
25.2%
#66David Starr
— SUB
#10Ty Dillon
— SUB
#01Corey LaJoie
— SUB

05 Full Projections

40 drivers • top 5 free
Column key — what these meantap to open
Identity
Rank
Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#
Car number.
Q
Qualifying / starting position.
Model output
EP
Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%
Probability of winning the race.
T3%
Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%
Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%
Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%
Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%
Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).
EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.
Ratings & features
ELO / Drv ELO
Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO
Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org
Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ
Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ
Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.
Track + practice
Track
Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac
Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.
Rank # Driver Team Q EP Win% T3% T5% T10% DNF% ELO Org Track Prac
1 24 William Byron Hendrick Motorsports P18 6.63 29.4% 50.8% 72% 78% 5.3% 1499 28.6 — —
2 12 Ryan Blaney Team Penske P3 5.52 22.3% 34.1% 46% 72% 13.2% 1516 24.3 — —
3 9 Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports P15 5.49 27.5% 34.1% 41% 64% 8.7% 1514 28.6 — —
4 5 Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports P11 4.93 16.4% 31.7% 47% 59% 18.8% 1512 28.6 — —
5 2 Austin Cindric Team Penske P4 4.93 13.7% 27.5% 41% 62% 11.1% 1511 24.3 — —
6 19 Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing — — — — — — — — — — —
7 48 Alex Bowman Hendrick Motorsports — — — — — — — — — — —
8 11 Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing — — — — — — — — — — —
9 22 Joey Logano Team Penske — — — — — — — — — — —
10 6 Brad Keselowski RFK Racing — — — — — — — — — — —
11 45 Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing — — — — — — — — — — —
12 54 Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing — — — — — — — — — — —
13 60 Ryan Preece RFK Racing — — — — — — — — — — —
14 21 Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing — — — — — — — — — — —
15 17 Chris Buescher RFK Racing — — — — — — — — — — —
16 1 Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing — — — — — — — — — — —
17 23 Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing — — — — — — — — — — —
18 42 John Hunter Nemechek Legacy Motor Club — — — — — — — — — — —
19 20 Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing — — — — — — — — — — —
20 71 Michael McDowell Spire Motorsports — — — — — — — — — — —
21 38 Zane Smith Front Row Motorsports — — — — — — — — — — —
22 3 Austin Dillon Richard Childress Racing — — — — — — — — — — —
23 77 Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports — — — — — — — — — — —
24 8 Kyle Busch Richard Childress Racing — — — — — — — — — — —
25 34 Todd Gilliland Front Row Motorsports — — — — — — — — — — —
26 47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Hyak Motorsports — — — — — — — — — — —
27 43 Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club — — — — — — — — — — —
28 16 A.J. Allmendinger Kaulig Racing — — — — — — — — — — —
29 7 Justin Haley Spire Motorsports — — — — — — — — — — —
30 41 Cole Custer Haas Factory Team — — — — — — — — — — —
31 99 Daniel Suarez Trackhouse Racing — — — — — — — — — — —
32 35 Riley Herbst 23XI Racing — — — — — — — — — — —
33 10 Ty Dillon Kaulig Racing — — — — — — — — — — —
34 4 Noah Gragson Front Row Motorsports — — — — — — — — — — —
35 88 Shane van Gisbergen Trackhouse Racing — — — — — — — — — — —
36 87 Connor Zilisch Trackhouse Racing — — — — — — — — — — —
37 01 Corey LaJoie Rick Ware Racing — — — — — — — — — — —
38 51 Cody Ware Rick Ware Racing — — — — — — — — — — —
39 78 B.J. McLeod Live Fast Motorsports — — — — — — — — — — —
40 66 David Starr Garage 66 — — — — — — — — — — —
Rank # Driver Team EP Win% T5% T10% T20% Made% DNF%
1 24 William Byron Hendrick Motorsports 6.63 29.4% 72% 78% 90% 95% 5.3%
2 12 Ryan Blaney Team Penske 5.52 22.3% 46% 72% 82% 87% 13.2%
3 9 Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports 5.49 27.5% 41% 64% 83% 91% 8.7%
4 5 Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports 4.93 16.4% 47% 59% 75% 81% 18.8%
5 2 Austin Cindric Team Penske 4.93 13.7% 41% 62% 78% 89% 11.1%
6 19 Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing — — — — — — —
7 48 Alex Bowman Hendrick Motorsports — — — — — — —
8 11 Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing — — — — — — —
9 22 Joey Logano Team Penske — — — — — — —
10 6 Brad Keselowski RFK Racing — — — — — — —
11 45 Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing — — — — — — —
12 54 Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing — — — — — — —
13 60 Ryan Preece RFK Racing — — — — — — —
14 21 Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing — — — — — — —
15 17 Chris Buescher RFK Racing — — — — — — —
16 1 Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing — — — — — — —
17 23 Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing — — — — — — —
18 42 John Hunter Nemechek Legacy Motor Club — — — — — — —
19 20 Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing — — — — — — —
20 71 Michael McDowell Spire Motorsports — — — — — — —
21 38 Zane Smith Front Row Motorsports — — — — — — —
22 3 Austin Dillon Richard Childress Racing — — — — — — —
23 77 Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports — — — — — — —
24 8 Kyle Busch Richard Childress Racing — — — — — — —
25 34 Todd Gilliland Front Row Motorsports — — — — — — —
26 47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Hyak Motorsports — — — — — — —
27 43 Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club — — — — — — —
28 16 A.J. Allmendinger Kaulig Racing — — — — — — —
29 7 Justin Haley Spire Motorsports — — — — — — —
30 41 Cole Custer Haas Factory Team — — — — — — —
31 99 Daniel Suarez Trackhouse Racing — — — — — — —
32 35 Riley Herbst 23XI Racing — — — — — — —
33 10 Ty Dillon Kaulig Racing — — — — — — —
34 4 Noah Gragson Front Row Motorsports — — — — — — —
35 88 Shane van Gisbergen Trackhouse Racing — — — — — — —
36 87 Connor Zilisch Trackhouse Racing — — — — — — —
37 01 Corey LaJoie Rick Ware Racing — — — — — — —
38 51 Cody Ware Rick Ware Racing — — — — — — —
39 78 B.J. McLeod Live Fast Motorsports — — — — — — —
40 66 David Starr Garage 66 — — — — — — —
Rank # Driver Team Q EP Drv ELO TT ELO Org QualΔ SFΔ
1 24 William Byron Hendrick Motorsports P18 6.63 1499 1497 28.6 +2.5 -8.2
2 12 Ryan Blaney Team Penske P3 5.52 1516 1514 24.3 +17.5 +3.8
3 9 Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports P15 5.49 1514 1512 28.6 +5.5 +5.7
4 5 Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports P11 4.93 1512 1511 28.6 +9.5 +0.3
5 2 Austin Cindric Team Penske P4 4.93 1511 1510 24.3 +16.5 -8.3
6 19 Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing — — — — — — —
7 48 Alex Bowman Hendrick Motorsports — — — — — — —
8 11 Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing — — — — — — —
9 22 Joey Logano Team Penske — — — — — — —
10 6 Brad Keselowski RFK Racing — — — — — — —
11 45 Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing — — — — — — —
12 54 Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing — — — — — — —
13 60 Ryan Preece RFK Racing — — — — — — —
14 21 Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing — — — — — — —
15 17 Chris Buescher RFK Racing — — — — — — —
16 1 Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing — — — — — — —
17 23 Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing — — — — — — —
18 42 John Hunter Nemechek Legacy Motor Club — — — — — — —
19 20 Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing — — — — — — —
20 71 Michael McDowell Spire Motorsports — — — — — — —
21 38 Zane Smith Front Row Motorsports — — — — — — —
22 3 Austin Dillon Richard Childress Racing — — — — — — —
23 77 Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports — — — — — — —
24 8 Kyle Busch Richard Childress Racing — — — — — — —
25 34 Todd Gilliland Front Row Motorsports — — — — — — —
26 47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Hyak Motorsports — — — — — — —
27 43 Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club — — — — — — —
28 16 A.J. Allmendinger Kaulig Racing — — — — — — —
29 7 Justin Haley Spire Motorsports — — — — — — —
30 41 Cole Custer Haas Factory Team — — — — — — —
31 99 Daniel Suarez Trackhouse Racing — — — — — — —
32 35 Riley Herbst 23XI Racing — — — — — — —
33 10 Ty Dillon Kaulig Racing — — — — — — —
34 4 Noah Gragson Front Row Motorsports — — — — — — —
35 88 Shane van Gisbergen Trackhouse Racing — — — — — — —
36 87 Connor Zilisch Trackhouse Racing — — — — — — —
37 01 Corey LaJoie Rick Ware Racing — — — — — — —
38 51 Cody Ware Rick Ware Racing — — — — — — —
39 78 B.J. McLeod Live Fast Motorsports — — — — — — —
40 66 David Starr Garage 66 — — — — — — —
35 more drivers behind the paywall.
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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-03-17 08:56
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