RACE 18 / 36 2025 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING

EchoPark SpeedwayQuaker State 400 Available at Walmart

DateSaturday, June 28, 2025

Track TypeIntermediate

Field40 drivers

INTERMEDIATE

EchoPark Speedway Updated 2026-03-17 08:56

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-03-17 08:56

Best by Expected Points · Win 29.4%

William Byron • #24 Hendrick Motorsports

Why: strong organization rating, recent strong start-finish gain at this track type.

Top by every metric this week — Expected Points, Win odds, and DNF avoidance. See full picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

William Byron

Win 29.4% • Top-5 72% • EP 6.63

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

◦ Subscriber

Safest Play

William Byron

Top-10 prob 78% • DNF 5.3%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

◦ Subscriber

Upside Driver

Brad Keselowski

Win prob 17.9% • Started P6

Risk Flag

Riley Herbst

DNF prob 26.6%

Race Confidence

HIGH • 75/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of intermediate

75/100

HIGH

Intermediates reward downforce-era setups and clean stops. Model performs reliably here.

Win pick hit rate

33%

Top-5 hit rate

43%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.50

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#24 Hendrick Motorsports

William Byron

Win 29.4%

Top-5 72%

Exp pts 6.63

Start P18

Driver ELO 1499

Track-type ELO 1497

Why this pick Why: strong organization rating, recent strong start-finish gain at this track type.

#12 Team Penske

Ryan Blaney

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

Unlock the full race sheet

#12 Team Penske

Ryan Blaney

Win 22.3%

Top-5 46%

Exp pts 5.52

Start P3

Driver ELO 1516

Track-type ELO 1514

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P3).

#9 Hendrick Motorsports

Chase Elliott

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

Unlock the full race sheet

#9 Hendrick Motorsports

Chase Elliott

Win 27.5%

Top-5 41%

Exp pts 5.49

Start P15

Driver ELO 1514

Track-type ELO 1512

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, strong organization rating.

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#24William Byron

29.4%

#9Chase Elliott

27.5%

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

#6Brad Keselowski

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#24William Byron

50.8%

#12Ryan Blaney

34.1%

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#24William Byron

72.2%

#19Chase Briscoe

53.9%

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#24William Byron

78.2%

#12Ryan Blaney

71.5%

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

#2Austin Cindric

— SUB

Best Value

#24William Byron

6.28

#9Chase Elliott

5.02

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

#2Austin Cindric

— SUB

#48Alex Bowman

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#35Riley Herbst

26.6%

#51Cody Ware

25.2%

#66David Starr

— SUB

#10Ty Dillon

— SUB

#01Corey LaJoie

— SUB

05 Full Projections

40 drivers • top 5 free40 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P18	6.63	29.4%	50.8%	72%	78%	5.3%	1499	28.6	—	—
2	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	P3	5.52	22.3%	34.1%	46%	72%	13.2%	1516	24.3	—	—
3	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	P15	5.49	27.5%	34.1%	41%	64%	8.7%	1514	28.6	—	—
4	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P11	4.93	16.4%	31.7%	47%	59%	18.8%	1512	28.6	—	—
5	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	P4	4.93	13.7%	27.5%	41%	62%	11.1%	1511	24.3	—	—
6	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	87	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	01	Corey LaJoie	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	78	B.J. McLeod	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40	66	David Starr	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	6.63	29.4%	72%	78%	90%	95%	5.3%
2	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	5.52	22.3%	46%	72%	82%	87%	13.2%
3	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	5.49	27.5%	41%	64%	83%	91%	8.7%
4	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	4.93	16.4%	47%	59%	75%	81%	18.8%
5	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	4.93	13.7%	41%	62%	78%	89%	11.1%
6	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	87	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	01	Corey LaJoie	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	78	B.J. McLeod	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40	66	David Starr	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P18	6.63	1499	1497	28.6	+2.5	-8.2
2	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	P3	5.52	1516	1514	24.3	+17.5	+3.8
3	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	P15	5.49	1514	1512	28.6	+5.5	+5.7
4	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P11	4.93	1512	1511	28.6	+9.5	+0.3
5	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	P4	4.93	1511	1510	24.3	+16.5	-8.3
6	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	87	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	01	Corey LaJoie	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	78	B.J. McLeod	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40	66	David Starr	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

35 more drivers behind the paywall.

Full sortable table, all probabilities, CSV download, and the Betting/DFS lenses ship with the Race Week Pass.

Download CSV ◦ subscriber Unlock the full race sheet

Full board.

All 40 drivers, every probability, plus CSV.

Download CSV ↓

Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-03-17 08:56