RACE 17 / 36 2025 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING

Pocono RacewayThe Great American Getaway 400 Presented by VISITPA.COM

DateSunday, June 22, 2025

Track TypeIntermediate

Field37 drivers

INTERMEDIATE

Pocono Raceway Updated 2026-03-17 08:56

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-03-17 08:56

Best by Expected Points · Win 36.2%

Denny Hamlin • #11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P1).

Lowest DNF risk: Austin Cindric (9.0%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Denny Hamlin

Win 36.2% • Top-5 68% • EP 6.57

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

◦ Subscriber

Safest Play

Denny Hamlin

Top-10 prob 78% • DNF 11.7%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

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Upside Driver

Chris Buescher

Win prob 11.7% • Started P2

Risk Flag

Brennan Poole

DNF prob 23.0%

Race Confidence

HIGH • 75/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of intermediate

75/100

HIGH

Intermediates reward downforce-era setups and clean stops. Model performs reliably here.

Win pick hit rate

33%

Top-5 hit rate

43%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.50

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win 36.2%

Top-5 68%

Exp pts 6.57

Start P1

Driver ELO 1516

Track-type ELO 1515

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P1).

#24 Hendrick Motorsports

William Byron

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#24 Hendrick Motorsports

William Byron

Win 19.0%

Top-5 61%

Exp pts 5.71

Start P31

Driver ELO 1510

Track-type ELO 1496

Why this pick Why: top-tier driver ELO, qualified well above field average, strong organization rating.

#19 Joe Gibbs Racing

Chase Briscoe

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#19 Joe Gibbs Racing

Chase Briscoe

Win 16.4%

Top-5 52%

Exp pts 5.41

Start P6

Driver ELO 1512

Track-type ELO 1500

Why this pick Why: top-tier driver ELO, top-10 starting spot (P6), strong organization rating.

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

36.2%

#9Chase Elliott

22.4%

#24William Byron

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#17Chris Buescher

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

52.1%

#24William Byron

40.1%

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

67.9%

#24William Byron

61.3%

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#23Bubba Wallace

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

78.1%

#24William Byron

69.0%

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

Best Value

#11Denny Hamlin

5.80

#24William Byron

5.14

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#44Brennan Poole

23.0%

#48Alex Bowman

19.7%

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

#88Shane van Gisbergen

— SUB

#51Cody Ware

— SUB

05 Full Projections

37 drivers • top 5 free37 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P1	6.57	36.2%	52.1%	68%	78%	11.7%	1516	25.9	—	—
2	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P31	5.71	19.0%	40.1%	61%	69%	10.0%	1510	28.6	—	—
3	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P6	5.41	16.4%	34.2%	52%	67%	9.4%	1512	25.9	—	—
4	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	P18	5.12	22.4%	31.1%	40%	60%	11.6%	1514	28.6	—	—
5	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P24	4.91	9.5%	28.2%	47%	61%	12.7%	1492	28.6	—	—
6	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	44	Brennan Poole	NY Racing Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	6.57	36.2%	68%	78%	84%	88%	11.7%
2	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	5.71	19.0%	61%	69%	82%	90%	10.0%
3	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	5.41	16.4%	52%	67%	82%	91%	9.4%
4	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	5.12	22.4%	40%	60%	79%	88%	11.6%
5	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	4.91	9.5%	47%	61%	80%	87%	12.7%
6	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	44	Brennan Poole	NY Racing Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P1	6.57	1516	1515	25.9	+18.0	-7.5
2	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P31	5.71	1510	1496	28.6	-12.0	-9.0
3	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P6	5.41	1512	1500	25.9	+13.0	-9.0
4	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	P18	5.12	1514	1505	28.6	+1.0	+4.7
5	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P24	4.91	1492	1512	28.6	-5.0	-5.5
6	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	44	Brennan Poole	NY Racing Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

32 more drivers behind the paywall.

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-03-17 08:56