RACE 16 / 36 2025 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING

Autodromo Hermanos RodriguezViva Mexico 250

DateSunday, June 15, 2025

Track TypeRoad Course

Field37 drivers

ROAD COURSE

Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez Updated 2026-03-17 08:55

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-03-17 08:55

Best by Expected Points · Win 37.2%

Shane van Gisbergen • #88 Trackhouse Racing

Why: strong track-type ELO, front-row start (P1), strong organization rating.

Lowest DNF risk: Ryan Blaney (5.1%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Shane van Gisbergen

Win 37.2% • Top-5 51% • EP 5.89

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

◦ Subscriber

Safest Play

Kyle Larson

Top-10 prob 70% • DNF 6.3%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

◦ Subscriber

Upside Driver

Chris Buescher

Win prob 20.1% • Started P16

Risk Flag

Katherine Legge

DNF prob 28.7%

Race Confidence

HIGH • 78/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L8 of road course

78/100

HIGH

Road courses introduce more variance. Specialists outperform the field; cautions tend to cluster late.

Win pick hit rate

38%

Top-5 hit rate

50%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.49

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#88 Trackhouse Racing

Shane van Gisbergen

Win 37.2%

Top-5 51%

Exp pts 5.89

Start P1

Driver ELO 1506

Track-type ELO 1511

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, front-row start (P1), strong organization rating.

#5 Hendrick Motorsports

Kyle Larson

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

Unlock the full race sheet

#5 Hendrick Motorsports

Kyle Larson

Win 26.3%

Top-5 55%

Exp pts 5.89

Start P6

Driver ELO 1514

Track-type ELO 1495

Why this pick Why: top-tier driver ELO, top-10 starting spot (P6), strong organization rating.

#9 Hendrick Motorsports

Chase Elliott

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

Unlock the full race sheet

#9 Hendrick Motorsports

Chase Elliott

Win 32.5%

Top-5 42%

Exp pts 5.62

Start P12

Driver ELO 1507

Track-type ELO 1513

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, strong organization rating, recent strong start-finish gain at this track type.

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#88Shane van Gisbergen

37.2%

#9Chase Elliott

32.5%

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#17Chris Buescher

— SUB

#71Michael McDowell

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#88Shane van Gisbergen

44.3%

#5Kyle Larson

40.8%

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#17Chris Buescher

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#5Kyle Larson

55.2%

#88Shane van Gisbergen

51.5%

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

#1Ross Chastain

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#5Kyle Larson

69.7%

#88Shane van Gisbergen

65.7%

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

#1Ross Chastain

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

Best Value

#5Kyle Larson

5.51

#88Shane van Gisbergen

5.26

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#17Chris Buescher

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#78Katherine Legge

28.7%

#11Ryan Truex

25.6%

#71Michael McDowell

— SUB

#41Cole Custer

— SUB

#77Carson Hocevar

— SUB

05 Full Projections

37 drivers • top 5 free37 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	P1	5.89	37.2%	44.3%	51%	66%	10.8%	1506	22.1	—	—
2	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P6	5.89	26.3%	40.8%	55%	70%	6.3%	1514	28.6	—	—
3	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	P12	5.62	32.5%	37.5%	42%	65%	8.9%	1507	28.6	—	—
4	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	P4	4.93	8.2%	28.5%	49%	62%	8.1%	1517	25.5	—	—
5	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	P3	4.84	15.7%	28.0%	40%	64%	15.6%	1514	22.1	—	—
6	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	11	Ryan Truex	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	78	Katherine Legge	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	5.89	37.2%	51%	66%	77%	89%	10.8%
2	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	5.89	26.3%	55%	70%	83%	94%	6.3%
3	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	5.62	32.5%	42%	65%	80%	91%	8.9%
4	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.93	8.2%	49%	62%	78%	92%	8.1%
5	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	4.84	15.7%	40%	64%	72%	84%	15.6%
6	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	11	Ryan Truex	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	78	Katherine Legge	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	P1	5.89	1506	1511	22.1	+18.0	-8.3
2	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P6	5.89	1514	1495	28.6	+13.0	-8.0
3	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	P12	5.62	1507	1513	28.6	+7.0	-2.3
4	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	P4	4.93	1517	1494	25.5	+15.0	-12.2
5	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	P3	4.84	1514	1508	22.1	+16.0	-3.8
6	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	11	Ryan Truex	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	78	Katherine Legge	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

32 more drivers behind the paywall.

Full sortable table, all probabilities, CSV download, and the Betting/DFS lenses ship with the Race Week Pass.

Download CSV ◦ subscriber Unlock the full race sheet

Full board.

All 37 drivers, every probability, plus CSV.

Download CSV ↓

Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-03-17 08:55