RACE 15 / 36 2025 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING

Michigan International SpeedwayFirekeepers Casino 400

DateSunday, June 8, 2025

Track TypeIntermediate

Field36 drivers

INTERMEDIATE

Michigan International Speedway Updated 2026-03-17 08:55

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-03-17 08:55

Best by Expected Points · Win 54.1%

William Byron • #24 Hendrick Motorsports

Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P4).

Top by every metric this week — Expected Points, Win odds, and DNF avoidance. See full picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

William Byron

Win 54.1% • Top-5 71% • EP 7.46

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

◦ Subscriber

Safest Play

William Byron

Top-10 prob 82% • DNF 5.1%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

◦ Subscriber

Upside Driver

Chase Elliott

Win prob 24.3% • Started P17

Risk Flag

Ryan Blaney

DNF prob 23.0%

Race Confidence

HIGH • 75/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of intermediate

75/100

HIGH

Intermediates reward downforce-era setups and clean stops. Model performs reliably here.

Win pick hit rate

33%

Top-5 hit rate

43%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.50

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#24 Hendrick Motorsports

William Byron

Win 54.1%

Top-5 71%

Exp pts 7.46

Start P4

Driver ELO 1513

Track-type ELO 1512

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P4).

#5 Hendrick Motorsports

Kyle Larson

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#5 Hendrick Motorsports

Kyle Larson

Win 43.6%

Top-5 61%

Exp pts 6.63

Start P5

Driver ELO 1511

Track-type ELO 1509

Why this pick Why: top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P5), strong organization rating.

#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win 29.4%

Top-5 54%

Exp pts 5.97

Start P3

Driver ELO 1515

Track-type ELO 1513

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P3).

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#24William Byron

54.1%

#5Kyle Larson

43.6%

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

#22Joey Logano

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#24William Byron

62.5%

#5Kyle Larson

52.4%

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#24William Byron

70.9%

#5Kyle Larson

61.3%

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#24William Byron

82.0%

#5Kyle Larson

75.1%

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#23Bubba Wallace

— SUB

Best Value

#24William Byron

7.08

#5Kyle Larson

5.89

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#12Ryan Blaney

23.0%

#21Josh Berry

22.2%

#22Joey Logano

— SUB

#77Carson Hocevar

— SUB

#99Daniel Suarez

— SUB

05 Full Projections

36 drivers • top 5 free36 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P4	7.46	54.1%	62.5%	71%	82%	5.1%	1513	29.0	—	—
2	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P5	6.63	43.6%	52.4%	61%	75%	11.2%	1511	29.0	—	—
3	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P3	5.97	29.4%	41.5%	54%	75%	13.5%	1515	25.5	—	—
4	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P1	5.38	19.0%	34.2%	49%	65%	8.6%	1506	25.5	—	—
5	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	P8	5.25	8.8%	28.8%	49%	68%	7.0%	1497	25.5	—	—
6	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	7.46	54.1%	71%	82%	92%	95%	5.1%
2	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	6.63	43.6%	61%	75%	85%	89%	11.2%
3	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	5.97	29.4%	54%	75%	83%	86%	13.5%
4	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	5.38	19.0%	49%	65%	81%	91%	8.6%
5	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	5.25	8.8%	49%	68%	86%	93%	7.0%
6	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P4	7.46	1513	1512	29.0	+14.5	-6.2
2	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P5	6.63	1511	1509	29.0	+13.5	-3.3
3	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P3	5.97	1515	1513	25.5	+15.5	-4.8
4	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P1	5.38	1506	1504	25.5	+17.5	-5.3
5	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	P8	5.25	1497	1496	25.5	+10.5	-12.5
6	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-03-17 08:55