RACE 14 / 36 2025 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING

Nashville SuperspeedwayCracker Barrel 400

DateSunday, June 1, 2025

Track TypeIntermediate

Field39 drivers

INTERMEDIATE

Nashville Superspeedway Updated 2026-03-17 08:55

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-03-17 08:55

Best by Expected Points · Win 56.3%

William Byron • #24 Hendrick Motorsports

Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P3).

Top by every metric this week — Expected Points, Win odds, and DNF avoidance. See full picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

William Byron

Win 56.3% • Top-5 73% • EP 7.60

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

◦ Subscriber

Safest Play

William Byron

Top-10 prob 83% • DNF 5.0%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

◦ Subscriber

Upside Driver

Christopher Bell

Win prob 24.6% • Started P7

Risk Flag

A.J. Allmendinger

DNF prob 28.1%

Race Confidence

MEDIUM • 69/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of intermediate

69/100

MEDIUM

Intermediates reward downforce-era setups and clean stops. Model performs reliably here.

Win pick hit rate

25%

Top-5 hit rate

37%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.48

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#24 Hendrick Motorsports

William Byron

Win 56.3%

Top-5 73%

Exp pts 7.60

Start P3

Driver ELO 1514

Track-type ELO 1513

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P3).

#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win 36.5%

Top-5 63%

Exp pts 6.52

Start P2

Driver ELO 1506

Track-type ELO 1506

Why this pick Why: front-row start (P2), strong organization rating, recent strong start-finish gain at this track type.

#9 Hendrick Motorsports

Chase Elliott

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#9 Hendrick Motorsports

Chase Elliott

Win 39.2%

Top-5 58%

Exp pts 6.29

Start P11

Driver ELO 1513

Track-type ELO 1511

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, strong organization rating.

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#24William Byron

56.3%

#1Ross Chastain

45.4%

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#24William Byron

64.6%

#1Ross Chastain

51.7%

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#24William Byron

72.9%

#11Denny Hamlin

63.3%

#1Ross Chastain

— SUB

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#24William Byron

83.2%

#11Denny Hamlin

76.0%

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

#1Ross Chastain

— SUB

Best Value

#24William Byron

7.22

#11Denny Hamlin

6.02

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

#1Ross Chastain

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#16A.J. Allmendinger

28.1%

#44J.J. Yeley

26.9%

#35Riley Herbst

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#21Josh Berry

— SUB

05 Full Projections

39 drivers • top 5 free39 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P3	7.60	56.3%	64.6%	73%	83%	5.0%	1514	29.3	—	—
2	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P2	6.52	36.5%	49.9%	63%	76%	7.7%	1506	26.0	—	—
3	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	P11	6.29	39.2%	48.6%	58%	71%	9.2%	1513	29.3	—	—
4	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	P5	6.21	45.4%	51.7%	58%	69%	18.6%	1516	21.8	—	—
5	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	P4	5.67	17.0%	35.9%	55%	72%	6.2%	1500	23.9	—	—
6	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	67	Corey Heim	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	66	Chad Finchum	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	44	J.J. Yeley	NY Racing Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	7.60	56.3%	73%	83%	92%	95%	5.0%
2	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	6.52	36.5%	63%	76%	86%	92%	7.7%
3	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	6.29	39.2%	58%	71%	81%	91%	9.2%
4	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	6.21	45.4%	58%	69%	75%	81%	18.6%
5	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	5.67	17.0%	55%	72%	84%	94%	6.2%
6	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	67	Corey Heim	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	66	Chad Finchum	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	44	J.J. Yeley	NY Racing Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P3	7.60	1514	1513	29.3	+17.0	-5.2
2	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P2	6.52	1506	1506	26.0	+18.0	-6.3
3	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	P11	6.29	1513	1511	29.3	+9.0	+6.0
4	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	P5	6.21	1516	1514	21.8	+15.0	+17.0
5	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	P4	5.67	1500	1498	23.9	+16.0	-4.3
6	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	67	Corey Heim	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	66	Chad Finchum	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	44	J.J. Yeley	NY Racing Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-03-17 08:55