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This Week / Race 13 / 2025 / Charlotte Motor Speedway
RACE 13 / 36 2025 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING

Charlotte Motor SpeedwayCoca-Cola 600

DateSunday, May 25, 2025
Track TypeIntermediate
Field40 drivers
INTERMEDIATE
Charlotte Motor Speedway Updated 2026-03-17 08:55

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-03-17 08:55
#1
Best by Expected Points · Win 31.6%

William Byron • #24 Hendrick Motorsports

Why: front-row start (P3), strong organization rating, recent strong start-finish gain at this track type.
Best Win odds: Christopher Bell (33.6%) · Lowest DNF risk: Ty Gibbs (5.6%) · See all picks →
EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.
Win Profile
William Byron
Win 31.6% • Top-5 58% • EP 6.20
Safest Play
— — — — —
Top-10 prob • DNF risk
◦ Subscriber
Upside Driver
— — — — —
Win prob • Starting grid
◦ Subscriber
Risk Flag
Derek Kraus
DNF prob 27.5%
Race Confidence
HIGH • 75/100
Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of intermediate
75/100
HIGH
Intermediates reward downforce-era setups and clean stops. Model performs reliably here.
Win pick hit rate
33%
Top-5 hit rate
43%
Rank fit (ρ)
0.50

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP
#24 Hendrick Motorsports
1
William Byron
Win 31.6%
Top-5 58%
Exp pts 6.20
Start P3
Driver ELO 1501
Track-type ELO 1500
Why this pick Why: front-row start (P3), strong organization rating, recent strong start-finish gain at this track type.
#5 Hendrick Motorsports
2
Kyle Larson
Win —
Top-5 —
Exp pts —
Start —
Driver ELO —
Track-type ELO —
Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.
Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#20 Joe Gibbs Racing
3
Christopher Bell
Win —
Top-5 —
Exp pts —
Start —
Driver ELO —
Track-type ELO —
Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.
Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber
Best Win Picks
#20Christopher Bell
33.6%
#24William Byron
31.6%
#48Alex Bowman
— SUB
#5Kyle Larson
— SUB
#19Chase Briscoe
— SUB
Best Top-3 Picks
#24William Byron
44.7%
#20Christopher Bell
43.0%
#5Kyle Larson
— SUB
#48Alex Bowman
— SUB
#45Tyler Reddick
— SUB
Best Top-5 Picks
#5Kyle Larson
58.4%
#24William Byron
57.8%
#20Christopher Bell
— SUB
#54Ty Gibbs
— SUB
#45Tyler Reddick
— SUB
Best Top-10 Picks
#5Kyle Larson
76.0%
#24William Byron
72.3%
#20Christopher Bell
— SUB
#54Ty Gibbs
— SUB
#45Tyler Reddick
— SUB
Best Value
#24William Byron
5.72
#5Kyle Larson
5.67
#48Alex Bowman
— SUB
#54Ty Gibbs
— SUB
#45Tyler Reddick
— SUB
Highest DNF Risk
#44Derek Kraus
27.5%
#21Josh Berry
26.1%
#16A.J. Allmendinger
— SUB
#77Carson Hocevar
— SUB
#35Riley Herbst
— SUB

05 Full Projections

40 drivers • top 5 free
Column key — what these meantap to open
Identity
Rank
Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#
Car number.
Q
Qualifying / starting position.
Model output
EP
Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%
Probability of winning the race.
T3%
Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%
Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%
Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%
Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%
Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).
EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.
Ratings & features
ELO / Drv ELO
Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO
Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org
Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ
Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ
Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.
Track + practice
Track
Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac
Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.
Rank # Driver Team Q EP Win% T3% T5% T10% DNF% ELO Org Track Prac
1 24 William Byron Hendrick Motorsports P3 6.20 31.6% 44.7% 58% 72% 7.8% 1501 29.9 — —
2 5 Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports P2 6.12 24.6% 41.5% 58% 76% 7.3% 1515 29.9 — —
3 20 Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing P10 5.72 33.6% 43.0% 52% 68% 20.8% 1515 26.1 — —
4 48 Alex Bowman Hendrick Motorsports P9 5.63 27.6% 37.4% 47% 65% 10.4% 1514 29.9 — —
5 54 Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing P7 5.24 8.5% 28.5% 49% 66% 5.6% 1499 26.1 — —
6 45 Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing — — — — — — — — — — —
7 11 Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing — — — — — — — — — — —
8 19 Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing — — — — — — — — — — —
9 22 Joey Logano Team Penske — — — — — — — — — — —
10 9 Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports — — — — — — — — — — —
11 12 Ryan Blaney Team Penske — — — — — — — — — — —
12 23 Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing — — — — — — — — — — —
13 17 Chris Buescher RFK Racing — — — — — — — — — — —
14 2 Austin Cindric Team Penske — — — — — — — — — — —
15 21 Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing — — — — — — — — — — —
16 99 Daniel Suarez Trackhouse Racing — — — — — — — — — — —
17 1 Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing — — — — — — — — — — —
18 71 Michael McDowell Spire Motorsports — — — — — — — — — — —
19 42 John Hunter Nemechek Legacy Motor Club — — — — — — — — — — —
20 16 A.J. Allmendinger Kaulig Racing — — — — — — — — — — —
21 47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Hyak Motorsports — — — — — — — — — — —
22 4 Noah Gragson Front Row Motorsports — — — — — — — — — — —
23 8 Kyle Busch Richard Childress Racing — — — — — — — — — — —
24 7 Justin Haley Spire Motorsports — — — — — — — — — — —
25 77 Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports — — — — — — — — — — —
26 60 Ryan Preece RFK Racing — — — — — — — — — — —
27 38 Zane Smith Front Row Motorsports — — — — — — — — — — —
28 84 Jimmie Johnson Legacy Motor Club — — — — — — — — — — —
29 3 Austin Dillon Richard Childress Racing — — — — — — — — — — —
30 10 Ty Dillon Kaulig Racing — — — — — — — — — — —
31 6 Brad Keselowski RFK Racing — — — — — — — — — — —
32 34 Todd Gilliland Front Row Motorsports — — — — — — — — — — —
33 35 Riley Herbst 23XI Racing — — — — — — — — — — —
34 43 Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club — — — — — — — — — — —
35 88 Shane van Gisbergen Trackhouse Racing — — — — — — — — — — —
36 87 Connor Zilisch Trackhouse Racing — — — — — — — — — — —
37 41 Cole Custer Haas Factory Team — — — — — — — — — — —
38 44 Derek Kraus NY Racing Team — — — — — — — — — — —
39 51 Cody Ware Rick Ware Racing — — — — — — — — — — —
40 66 Josh Bilicki Garage 66 — — — — — — — — — — —
Rank # Driver Team EP Win% T5% T10% T20% Made% DNF%
1 24 William Byron Hendrick Motorsports 6.20 31.6% 58% 72% 86% 92% 7.8%
2 5 Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports 6.12 24.6% 58% 76% 88% 93% 7.3%
3 20 Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing 5.72 33.6% 52% 68% 76% 79% 20.8%
4 48 Alex Bowman Hendrick Motorsports 5.63 27.6% 47% 65% 83% 90% 10.4%
5 54 Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing 5.24 8.5% 49% 66% 87% 94% 5.6%
6 45 Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing — — — — — — —
7 11 Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing — — — — — — —
8 19 Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing — — — — — — —
9 22 Joey Logano Team Penske — — — — — — —
10 9 Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports — — — — — — —
11 12 Ryan Blaney Team Penske — — — — — — —
12 23 Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing — — — — — — —
13 17 Chris Buescher RFK Racing — — — — — — —
14 2 Austin Cindric Team Penske — — — — — — —
15 21 Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing — — — — — — —
16 99 Daniel Suarez Trackhouse Racing — — — — — — —
17 1 Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing — — — — — — —
18 71 Michael McDowell Spire Motorsports — — — — — — —
19 42 John Hunter Nemechek Legacy Motor Club — — — — — — —
20 16 A.J. Allmendinger Kaulig Racing — — — — — — —
21 47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Hyak Motorsports — — — — — — —
22 4 Noah Gragson Front Row Motorsports — — — — — — —
23 8 Kyle Busch Richard Childress Racing — — — — — — —
24 7 Justin Haley Spire Motorsports — — — — — — —
25 77 Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports — — — — — — —
26 60 Ryan Preece RFK Racing — — — — — — —
27 38 Zane Smith Front Row Motorsports — — — — — — —
28 84 Jimmie Johnson Legacy Motor Club — — — — — — —
29 3 Austin Dillon Richard Childress Racing — — — — — — —
30 10 Ty Dillon Kaulig Racing — — — — — — —
31 6 Brad Keselowski RFK Racing — — — — — — —
32 34 Todd Gilliland Front Row Motorsports — — — — — — —
33 35 Riley Herbst 23XI Racing — — — — — — —
34 43 Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club — — — — — — —
35 88 Shane van Gisbergen Trackhouse Racing — — — — — — —
36 87 Connor Zilisch Trackhouse Racing — — — — — — —
37 41 Cole Custer Haas Factory Team — — — — — — —
38 44 Derek Kraus NY Racing Team — — — — — — —
39 51 Cody Ware Rick Ware Racing — — — — — — —
40 66 Josh Bilicki Garage 66 — — — — — — —
Rank # Driver Team Q EP Drv ELO TT ELO Org QualΔ SFΔ
1 24 William Byron Hendrick Motorsports P3 6.20 1501 1500 29.9 +17.5 -7.2
2 5 Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports P2 6.12 1515 1515 29.9 +18.5 +1.7
3 20 Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing P10 5.72 1515 1514 26.1 +10.5 +6.8
4 48 Alex Bowman Hendrick Motorsports P9 5.63 1514 1513 29.9 +11.5 -4.2
5 54 Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing P7 5.24 1499 1497 26.1 +13.5 -6.3
6 45 Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing — — — — — — —
7 11 Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing — — — — — — —
8 19 Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing — — — — — — —
9 22 Joey Logano Team Penske — — — — — — —
10 9 Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports — — — — — — —
11 12 Ryan Blaney Team Penske — — — — — — —
12 23 Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing — — — — — — —
13 17 Chris Buescher RFK Racing — — — — — — —
14 2 Austin Cindric Team Penske — — — — — — —
15 21 Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing — — — — — — —
16 99 Daniel Suarez Trackhouse Racing — — — — — — —
17 1 Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing — — — — — — —
18 71 Michael McDowell Spire Motorsports — — — — — — —
19 42 John Hunter Nemechek Legacy Motor Club — — — — — — —
20 16 A.J. Allmendinger Kaulig Racing — — — — — — —
21 47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Hyak Motorsports — — — — — — —
22 4 Noah Gragson Front Row Motorsports — — — — — — —
23 8 Kyle Busch Richard Childress Racing — — — — — — —
24 7 Justin Haley Spire Motorsports — — — — — — —
25 77 Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports — — — — — — —
26 60 Ryan Preece RFK Racing — — — — — — —
27 38 Zane Smith Front Row Motorsports — — — — — — —
28 84 Jimmie Johnson Legacy Motor Club — — — — — — —
29 3 Austin Dillon Richard Childress Racing — — — — — — —
30 10 Ty Dillon Kaulig Racing — — — — — — —
31 6 Brad Keselowski RFK Racing — — — — — — —
32 34 Todd Gilliland Front Row Motorsports — — — — — — —
33 35 Riley Herbst 23XI Racing — — — — — — —
34 43 Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club — — — — — — —
35 88 Shane van Gisbergen Trackhouse Racing — — — — — — —
36 87 Connor Zilisch Trackhouse Racing — — — — — — —
37 41 Cole Custer Haas Factory Team — — — — — — —
38 44 Derek Kraus NY Racing Team — — — — — — —
39 51 Cody Ware Rick Ware Racing — — — — — — —
40 66 Josh Bilicki Garage 66 — — — — — — —
35 more drivers behind the paywall.
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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-03-17 08:55
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