RACE 13 / 36 2025 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING

Charlotte Motor SpeedwayCoca-Cola 600

DateSunday, May 25, 2025

Track TypeIntermediate

Field40 drivers

INTERMEDIATE

Charlotte Motor Speedway Updated 2026-03-17 08:55

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-03-17 08:55

Best by Expected Points · Win 31.6%

William Byron • #24 Hendrick Motorsports

Why: front-row start (P3), strong organization rating, recent strong start-finish gain at this track type.

Best Win odds: Christopher Bell (33.6%) · Lowest DNF risk: Ty Gibbs (5.6%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

William Byron

Win 31.6% • Top-5 58% • EP 6.20

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

◦ Subscriber

Safest Play

Kyle Larson

Top-10 prob 76% • DNF 7.3%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

◦ Subscriber

Upside Driver

Chase Briscoe

Win prob 17.5% • Started P1

Risk Flag

Derek Kraus

DNF prob 27.5%

Race Confidence

MEDIUM • 69/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of intermediate

69/100

MEDIUM

Intermediates reward downforce-era setups and clean stops. Model performs reliably here.

Win pick hit rate

25%

Top-5 hit rate

37%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.48

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#24 Hendrick Motorsports

William Byron

Win 31.6%

Top-5 58%

Exp pts 6.20

Start P3

Driver ELO 1501

Track-type ELO 1500

Why this pick Why: front-row start (P3), strong organization rating, recent strong start-finish gain at this track type.

#5 Hendrick Motorsports

Kyle Larson

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#5 Hendrick Motorsports

Kyle Larson

Win 24.6%

Top-5 58%

Exp pts 6.12

Start P2

Driver ELO 1515

Track-type ELO 1515

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P2).

#20 Joe Gibbs Racing

Christopher Bell

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#20 Joe Gibbs Racing

Christopher Bell

Win 33.6%

Top-5 52%

Exp pts 5.72

Start P10

Driver ELO 1515

Track-type ELO 1514

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, top-10 starting spot (P10). Watch-out: elevated DNF risk (21%).

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#20Christopher Bell

33.6%

#24William Byron

31.6%

#48Alex Bowman

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#24William Byron

44.7%

#20Christopher Bell

43.0%

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#48Alex Bowman

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#5Kyle Larson

58.4%

#24William Byron

57.8%

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#5Kyle Larson

76.0%

#24William Byron

72.3%

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

Best Value

#24William Byron

5.72

#5Kyle Larson

5.67

#48Alex Bowman

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#44Derek Kraus

27.5%

#21Josh Berry

26.1%

#16A.J. Allmendinger

— SUB

#77Carson Hocevar

— SUB

#35Riley Herbst

— SUB

05 Full Projections

40 drivers • top 5 free40 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P3	6.20	31.6%	44.7%	58%	72%	7.8%	1501	29.9	—	—
2	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P2	6.12	24.6%	41.5%	58%	76%	7.3%	1515	29.9	—	—
3	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P10	5.72	33.6%	43.0%	52%	68%	20.8%	1515	26.1	—	—
4	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	P9	5.63	27.6%	37.4%	47%	65%	10.4%	1514	29.9	—	—
5	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	P7	5.24	8.5%	28.5%	49%	66%	5.6%	1499	26.1	—	—
6	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	84	Jimmie Johnson	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	87	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	44	Derek Kraus	NY Racing Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40	66	Josh Bilicki	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	6.20	31.6%	58%	72%	86%	92%	7.8%
2	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	6.12	24.6%	58%	76%	88%	93%	7.3%
3	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	5.72	33.6%	52%	68%	76%	79%	20.8%
4	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	5.63	27.6%	47%	65%	83%	90%	10.4%
5	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	5.24	8.5%	49%	66%	87%	94%	5.6%
6	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	84	Jimmie Johnson	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	87	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	44	Derek Kraus	NY Racing Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40	66	Josh Bilicki	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P3	6.20	1501	1500	29.9	+17.5	-7.2
2	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P2	6.12	1515	1515	29.9	+18.5	+1.7
3	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P10	5.72	1515	1514	26.1	+10.5	+6.8
4	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	P9	5.63	1514	1513	29.9	+11.5	-4.2
5	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	P7	5.24	1499	1497	26.1	+13.5	-6.3
6	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	84	Jimmie Johnson	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	87	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	44	Derek Kraus	NY Racing Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40	66	Josh Bilicki	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-03-17 08:55