RACE 12 / 36 2025 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING

Kansas SpeedwayAdventHealth 400

DateSunday, May 11, 2025

Track TypeIntermediate

Field38 drivers

INTERMEDIATE

Kansas Speedway Updated 2026-03-17 08:55

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-03-17 08:55

Best by Expected Points · Win 40.7%

Christopher Bell • #20 Joe Gibbs Racing

Why: front-row start (P3), strong organization rating.

Lowest DNF risk: Bubba Wallace (7.4%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Christopher Bell

Win 40.7% • Top-5 59% • EP 6.38

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

◦ Subscriber

Safest Play

Christopher Bell

Top-10 prob 72% • DNF 10.9%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

◦ Subscriber

Upside Driver

Ryan Blaney

Win prob 19.3% • Started P10

Risk Flag

Jesse Love

DNF prob 26.6%

Race Confidence

MEDIUM • 69/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of intermediate

69/100

MEDIUM

Intermediates reward downforce-era setups and clean stops. Model performs reliably here.

Win pick hit rate

25%

Top-5 hit rate

37%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.48

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#20 Joe Gibbs Racing

Christopher Bell

Win 40.7%

Top-5 59%

Exp pts 6.38

Start P3

Driver ELO 1510

Track-type ELO 1509

Why this pick Why: front-row start (P3), strong organization rating.

#45 23XI Racing

Tyler Reddick

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

Unlock the full race sheet

#45 23XI Racing

Tyler Reddick

Win 35.5%

Top-5 53%

Exp pts 6.03

Start P4

Driver ELO 1503

Track-type ELO 1501

Why this pick Why: front-row start (P4), strong organization rating.

#5 Hendrick Motorsports

Kyle Larson

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

Unlock the full race sheet

#5 Hendrick Motorsports

Kyle Larson

Win 28.4%

Top-5 51%

Exp pts 5.93

Start P1

Driver ELO 1514

Track-type ELO 1513

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P1).

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#20Christopher Bell

40.7%

#45Tyler Reddick

35.5%

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#20Christopher Bell

49.8%

#45Tyler Reddick

44.2%

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#20Christopher Bell

59.0%

#24William Byron

56.8%

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#22Joey Logano

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#20Christopher Bell

72.4%

#24William Byron

71.5%

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#22Joey Logano

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

Best Value

#20Christopher Bell

5.68

#45Tyler Reddick

5.52

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#33Jesse Love

26.6%

#43Erik Jones

26.3%

#35Riley Herbst

— SUB

#21Josh Berry

— SUB

#51Cody Ware

— SUB

05 Full Projections

38 drivers • top 5 free38 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P3	6.38	40.7%	49.8%	59%	72%	10.9%	1510	25.9	—	—
2	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	P4	6.03	35.5%	44.2%	53%	68%	8.6%	1503	24.9	—	—
3	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P1	5.93	28.4%	39.6%	51%	71%	8.6%	1514	29.4	—	—
4	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P7	5.83	21.2%	39.0%	57%	72%	9.4%	1508	29.4	—	—
5	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	P9	5.47	30.5%	38.3%	46%	58%	8.4%	1505	29.4	—	—
6	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	67	Corey Heim	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	33	Jesse Love	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	6.38	40.7%	59%	72%	82%	89%	10.9%
2	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	6.03	35.5%	53%	68%	82%	91%	8.6%
3	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	5.93	28.4%	51%	71%	86%	91%	8.6%
4	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	5.83	21.2%	57%	72%	86%	91%	9.4%
5	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	5.47	30.5%	46%	58%	77%	92%	8.4%
6	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	67	Corey Heim	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	33	Jesse Love	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P3	6.38	1510	1509	25.9	+16.5	+6.5
2	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	P4	6.03	1503	1501	24.9	+15.5	+0.0
3	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P1	5.93	1514	1513	29.4	+18.5	-0.2
4	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P7	5.83	1508	1507	29.4	+12.5	-1.2
5	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	P9	5.47	1505	1505	29.4	+10.5	+4.5
6	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	67	Corey Heim	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	33	Jesse Love	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

33 more drivers behind the paywall.

Full sortable table, all probabilities, CSV download, and the Betting/DFS lenses ship with the Race Week Pass.

Download CSV ◦ subscriber Unlock the full race sheet

Full board.

All 38 drivers, every probability, plus CSV.

Download CSV ↓

Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-03-17 08:55