RACE 11 / 36 2025 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING

Texas Motor SpeedwayWurth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY

DateSunday, May 4, 2025

Track TypeIntermediate

Field38 drivers

INTERMEDIATE

Texas Motor Speedway Updated 2026-03-17 08:55

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-03-17 08:55

Best by Expected Points · Win 25.4%

Kyle Larson • #5 Hendrick Motorsports

Why: top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P4), strong organization rating.

Best Win odds: Denny Hamlin (25.9%) · Lowest DNF risk: William Byron (7.2%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Kyle Larson

Win 25.4% • Top-5 54% • EP 5.80

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

◦ Subscriber

Safest Play

William Byron

Top-10 prob 70% • DNF 7.2%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

◦ Subscriber

Upside Driver

Tyler Reddick

Win prob 22.0% • Started P17

Risk Flag

Shane van Gisbergen

DNF prob 23.4%

Race Confidence

HIGH • 75/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of intermediate

75/100

HIGH

Intermediates reward downforce-era setups and clean stops. Model performs reliably here.

Win pick hit rate

33%

Top-5 hit rate

43%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.50

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#5 Hendrick Motorsports

Kyle Larson

Win 25.4%

Top-5 54%

Exp pts 5.80

Start P4

Driver ELO 1515

Track-type ELO 1492

Why this pick Why: top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P4), strong organization rating.

#24 Hendrick Motorsports

William Byron

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

Unlock the full race sheet

#24 Hendrick Motorsports

William Byron

Win 15.8%

Top-5 54%

Exp pts 5.60

Start P2

Driver ELO 1515

Track-type ELO 1514

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P2).

#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

Unlock the full race sheet

#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win 25.9%

Top-5 45%

Exp pts 5.45

Start P8

Driver ELO 1503

Track-type ELO 1515

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-10 starting spot (P8), strong organization rating.

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

25.9%

#5Kyle Larson

25.4%

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#23Bubba Wallace

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#5Kyle Larson

39.6%

#11Denny Hamlin

35.6%

#24William Byron

— SUB

#23Bubba Wallace

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#24William Byron

53.8%

#5Kyle Larson

53.7%

#23Bubba Wallace

— SUB

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#24William Byron

70.2%

#5Kyle Larson

67.2%

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#23Bubba Wallace

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

Best Value

#5Kyle Larson

5.21

#24William Byron

5.20

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#23Bubba Wallace

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#88Shane van Gisbergen

23.4%

#35Riley Herbst

20.7%

#66Chad Finchum

— SUB

#21Josh Berry

— SUB

#51Cody Ware

— SUB

05 Full Projections

38 drivers • top 5 free38 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P4	5.80	25.4%	39.6%	54%	67%	10.2%	1515	29.5	—	—
2	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P2	5.60	15.8%	34.8%	54%	70%	7.2%	1515	29.5	—	—
3	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P8	5.45	25.9%	35.6%	45%	66%	12.2%	1503	26.1	—	—
4	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	P9	5.25	17.5%	31.9%	46%	66%	10.2%	1511	25.2	—	—
5	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P16	5.11	19.4%	31.5%	44%	61%	14.9%	1494	26.1	—	—
6	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	62	Jesse Love	Beard Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	66	Chad Finchum	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	5.80	25.4%	54%	67%	86%	90%	10.2%
2	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	5.60	15.8%	54%	70%	86%	93%	7.2%
3	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	5.45	25.9%	45%	66%	78%	88%	12.2%
4	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	5.25	17.5%	46%	66%	79%	90%	10.2%
5	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	5.11	19.4%	44%	61%	79%	85%	14.9%
6	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	62	Jesse Love	Beard Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	66	Chad Finchum	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P4	5.80	1515	1492	29.5	+15.5	-1.2
2	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P2	5.60	1515	1514	29.5	+17.5	+1.5
3	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P8	5.45	1503	1515	26.1	+11.5	+6.3
4	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	P9	5.25	1511	1502	25.2	+10.5	-2.7
5	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P16	5.11	1494	1512	26.1	+3.5	+5.2
6	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	62	Jesse Love	Beard Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	66	Chad Finchum	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

33 more drivers behind the paywall.

Full sortable table, all probabilities, CSV download, and the Betting/DFS lenses ship with the Race Week Pass.

Download CSV ◦ subscriber Unlock the full race sheet

Full board.

All 38 drivers, every probability, plus CSV.

Download CSV ↓

Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-03-17 08:55