Grid Walk / Cup Series
Model live
RACE 10 / 36 2025 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING

Talladega SuperspeedwayJack Link's 500

DateSunday, April 27, 2025
Track TypeSuperspeedway
Field39 drivers
SUPERSPEEDWAY
Talladega Superspeedway Updated 2026-03-17 08:55

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-03-17 08:55
#1
Best by Expected Points · Win 8.0%

Denny Hamlin • #11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Why: top-tier driver ELO, strong organization rating, recent strong start-finish gain at this track type.
Best Win odds: William Byron (26.6%) · Lowest DNF risk: Austin Cindric (10.0%) · See all picks →
EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.
Win Profile
Denny Hamlin
Win 8.0% • Top-5 51%EP 4.95
Safest Play
— — — — —
Top-10 prob • DNF risk
◦ Subscriber
Upside Driver
— — — — —
Win prob • Starting grid
◦ Subscriber
Risk Flag
Cole Custer
DNF prob 34.2%
Race Confidence
CHAOS • 17/100
Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L6 of superspeedway
17/100
CHAOS RACE
Plate-race outcomes diverge from the model — drafting luck and late wrecks dominate. Honesty over confidence.
Win pick hit rate
17%
Top-5 hit rate
17%
Rank fit (ρ)
0.08
!
Chaos race Superspeedway results historically diverge from the model. Survival probability matters more than expected finish — read this card as guidance, not a forecast.

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP
#11 Joe Gibbs Racing
1
Denny Hamlin
Win 8.0%
Top-5 51%
Exp pts 4.95
Start P13
Driver ELO 1515
Track-type ELO 1499
Why this pick Why: top-tier driver ELO, strong organization rating, recent strong start-finish gain at this track type.
#17 RFK Racing
2
Chris Buescher
Win
Top-5
Exp pts
Start
Driver ELO
Track-type ELO
Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.
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Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#24 Hendrick Motorsports
3
William Byron
Win
Top-5
Exp pts
Start
Driver ELO
Track-type ELO
Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.
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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber
Best Win Picks
#24William Byron
26.6%
#48Alex Bowman
19.3%
#19Chase Briscoe
SUB
#17Chris Buescher
SUB
#5Kyle Larson
SUB
Best Top-3 Picks
#24William Byron
30.5%
#11Denny Hamlin
29.3%
#48Alex Bowman
SUB
#17Chris Buescher
SUB
#19Chase Briscoe
SUB
Best Top-5 Picks
#11Denny Hamlin
50.6%
#20Christopher Bell
41.1%
#17Chris Buescher
SUB
#19Chase Briscoe
SUB
#22Joey Logano
SUB
Best Top-10 Picks
#11Denny Hamlin
65.7%
#17Chris Buescher
62.6%
#2Austin Cindric
SUB
#12Ryan Blaney
SUB
#20Christopher Bell
SUB
Best Value
#17Chris Buescher
4.30
#2Austin Cindric
4.21
#11Denny Hamlin
SUB
#20Christopher Bell
SUB
#48Alex Bowman
SUB
Highest DNF Risk
#41Cole Custer
34.2%
#44J.J. Yeley
32.9%
#5Kyle Larson
SUB
#42John Hunter Nemechek
SUB
#7Justin Haley
SUB

05 Full Projections

39 drivers • top 5 free
Column key — what these meantap to open
Identity
Rank
Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#
Car number.
Q
Qualifying / starting position.
Model output
EP
Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%
Probability of winning the race.
T3%
Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%
Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%
Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%
Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%
Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).
EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.
Ratings & features
ELO / Drv ELO
Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO
Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org
Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ
Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ
Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.
Track + practice
Track
Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac
Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.
Rank # Driver Team Q EP Win% T3% T5% T10% DNF% ELO Org Track Prac
1 11 Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing P13 4.95 8.0% 29.3% 51% 66% 16.1% 1515 26.4
2 17 Chris Buescher RFK Racing P6 4.92 16.2% 27.5% 39% 63% 12.5% 1501 24.6
3 24 William Byron Hendrick Motorsports P16 4.72 26.6% 30.5% 34% 52% 19.2% 1513 28.9
4 2 Austin Cindric Team Penske P7 4.67 12.0% 23.8% 35% 58% 10.0% 1505 24.2
5 48 Alex Bowman Hendrick Motorsports P18 4.67 19.3% 27.6% 36% 53% 17.4% 1494 28.9
6 19 Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing
7 20 Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing
8 12 Ryan Blaney Team Penske
9 60 Ryan Preece RFK Racing
10 22 Joey Logano Team Penske
11 45 Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing
12 9 Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports
13 23 Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing
14 6 Brad Keselowski RFK Racing
15 8 Kyle Busch Richard Childress Racing
16 5 Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports
17 54 Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing
18 1 Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing
19 71 Michael McDowell Spire Motorsports
20 34 Todd Gilliland Front Row Motorsports
21 3 Austin Dillon Richard Childress Racing
22 16 A.J. Allmendinger Kaulig Racing
23 38 Zane Smith Front Row Motorsports
24 21 Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing
25 47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Hyak Motorsports
26 35 Riley Herbst 23XI Racing
27 42 John Hunter Nemechek Legacy Motor Club
28 10 Ty Dillon Kaulig Racing
29 88 Shane van Gisbergen Trackhouse Racing
30 99 Daniel Suarez Trackhouse Racing
31 43 Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club
32 4 Noah Gragson Front Row Motorsports
33 7 Justin Haley Spire Motorsports
34 41 Cole Custer Haas Factory Team
35 77 Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports
36 62 Anthony Alfredo Beard Motorsports
37 51 Cody Ware Rick Ware Racing
38 78 B.J. McLeod Live Fast Motorsports
39 44 J.J. Yeley NY Racing Team
Rank # Driver Team EP Win% T5% T10% T20% Made% DNF%
1 11 Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing 4.95 8.0% 51% 66% 77% 84% 16.1%
2 17 Chris Buescher RFK Racing 4.92 16.2% 39% 63% 76% 88% 12.5%
3 24 William Byron Hendrick Motorsports 4.72 26.6% 34% 52% 70% 81% 19.2%
4 2 Austin Cindric Team Penske 4.67 12.0% 35% 58% 77% 90% 10.0%
5 48 Alex Bowman Hendrick Motorsports 4.67 19.3% 36% 53% 74% 83% 17.4%
6 19 Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing
7 20 Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing
8 12 Ryan Blaney Team Penske
9 60 Ryan Preece RFK Racing
10 22 Joey Logano Team Penske
11 45 Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing
12 9 Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports
13 23 Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing
14 6 Brad Keselowski RFK Racing
15 8 Kyle Busch Richard Childress Racing
16 5 Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports
17 54 Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing
18 1 Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing
19 71 Michael McDowell Spire Motorsports
20 34 Todd Gilliland Front Row Motorsports
21 3 Austin Dillon Richard Childress Racing
22 16 A.J. Allmendinger Kaulig Racing
23 38 Zane Smith Front Row Motorsports
24 21 Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing
25 47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Hyak Motorsports
26 35 Riley Herbst 23XI Racing
27 42 John Hunter Nemechek Legacy Motor Club
28 10 Ty Dillon Kaulig Racing
29 88 Shane van Gisbergen Trackhouse Racing
30 99 Daniel Suarez Trackhouse Racing
31 43 Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club
32 4 Noah Gragson Front Row Motorsports
33 7 Justin Haley Spire Motorsports
34 41 Cole Custer Haas Factory Team
35 77 Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports
36 62 Anthony Alfredo Beard Motorsports
37 51 Cody Ware Rick Ware Racing
38 78 B.J. McLeod Live Fast Motorsports
39 44 J.J. Yeley NY Racing Team
Rank # Driver Team Q EP Drv ELO TT ELO Org QualΔ SFΔ
1 11 Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Racing P13 4.95 1515 1499 26.4 +7.0 -8.8
2 17 Chris Buescher RFK Racing P6 4.92 1501 1508 24.6 +14.0 -1.5
3 24 William Byron Hendrick Motorsports P16 4.72 1513 1513 28.9 +4.0 +4.3
4 2 Austin Cindric Team Penske P7 4.67 1505 1510 24.2 +13.0 -13.5
5 48 Alex Bowman Hendrick Motorsports P18 4.67 1494 1510 28.9 +2.0 +8.0
6 19 Chase Briscoe Joe Gibbs Racing
7 20 Christopher Bell Joe Gibbs Racing
8 12 Ryan Blaney Team Penske
9 60 Ryan Preece RFK Racing
10 22 Joey Logano Team Penske
11 45 Tyler Reddick 23XI Racing
12 9 Chase Elliott Hendrick Motorsports
13 23 Bubba Wallace 23XI Racing
14 6 Brad Keselowski RFK Racing
15 8 Kyle Busch Richard Childress Racing
16 5 Kyle Larson Hendrick Motorsports
17 54 Ty Gibbs Joe Gibbs Racing
18 1 Ross Chastain Trackhouse Racing
19 71 Michael McDowell Spire Motorsports
20 34 Todd Gilliland Front Row Motorsports
21 3 Austin Dillon Richard Childress Racing
22 16 A.J. Allmendinger Kaulig Racing
23 38 Zane Smith Front Row Motorsports
24 21 Josh Berry Wood Brothers Racing
25 47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Hyak Motorsports
26 35 Riley Herbst 23XI Racing
27 42 John Hunter Nemechek Legacy Motor Club
28 10 Ty Dillon Kaulig Racing
29 88 Shane van Gisbergen Trackhouse Racing
30 99 Daniel Suarez Trackhouse Racing
31 43 Erik Jones Legacy Motor Club
32 4 Noah Gragson Front Row Motorsports
33 7 Justin Haley Spire Motorsports
34 41 Cole Custer Haas Factory Team
35 77 Carson Hocevar Spire Motorsports
36 62 Anthony Alfredo Beard Motorsports
37 51 Cody Ware Rick Ware Racing
38 78 B.J. McLeod Live Fast Motorsports
39 44 J.J. Yeley NY Racing Team
34 more drivers behind the paywall.
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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-03-17 08:55
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