RACE 10 / 36 2025 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING

Talladega SuperspeedwayJack Link's 500

DateSunday, April 27, 2025

Track TypeSuperspeedway

Field39 drivers

SUPERSPEEDWAY

Talladega Superspeedway Updated 2026-03-17 08:55

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-03-17 08:55

Best by Expected Points · Win 8.0%

Denny Hamlin • #11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Why: top-tier driver ELO, strong organization rating, recent strong start-finish gain at this track type.

Best Win odds: William Byron (26.6%) · Lowest DNF risk: Austin Cindric (10.0%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Denny Hamlin

Win 8.0% • Top-5 51% • EP 4.95

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

◦ Subscriber

Safest Play

Denny Hamlin

Top-10 prob 66% • DNF 16.1%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

◦ Subscriber

Upside Driver

Chase Briscoe

Win prob 16.2% • Started P17

Risk Flag

Cole Custer

DNF prob 34.2%

Race Confidence

CHAOS • 17/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L6 of superspeedway

17/100

CHAOS RACE

Plate-race outcomes diverge from the model — drafting luck and late wrecks dominate. Honesty over confidence.

Win pick hit rate

17%

Top-5 hit rate

17%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.08

Chaos race Superspeedway results historically diverge from the model. Survival probability matters more than expected finish — read this card as guidance, not a forecast.

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win 8.0%

Top-5 51%

Exp pts 4.95

Start P13

Driver ELO 1515

Track-type ELO 1499

Why this pick Why: top-tier driver ELO, strong organization rating, recent strong start-finish gain at this track type.

#17 RFK Racing

Chris Buescher

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#17 RFK Racing

Chris Buescher

Win 16.2%

Top-5 39%

Exp pts 4.92

Start P6

Driver ELO 1501

Track-type ELO 1508

Why this pick Why: top-10 starting spot (P6), strong organization rating.

#24 Hendrick Motorsports

William Byron

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#24 Hendrick Motorsports

William Byron

Win 26.6%

Top-5 34%

Exp pts 4.72

Start P16

Driver ELO 1513

Track-type ELO 1513

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, strong organization rating. Watch-out: elevated DNF risk (19%).

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#24William Byron

26.6%

#48Alex Bowman

19.3%

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#17Chris Buescher

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#24William Byron

30.5%

#11Denny Hamlin

29.3%

#48Alex Bowman

— SUB

#17Chris Buescher

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

50.6%

#20Christopher Bell

41.1%

#17Chris Buescher

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#22Joey Logano

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

65.7%

#17Chris Buescher

62.6%

#2Austin Cindric

— SUB

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

Best Value

#17Chris Buescher

4.30

#2Austin Cindric

4.21

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#48Alex Bowman

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#41Cole Custer

34.2%

#44J.J. Yeley

32.9%

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#42John Hunter Nemechek

— SUB

#7Justin Haley

— SUB

05 Full Projections

39 drivers • top 5 free39 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P13	4.95	8.0%	29.3%	51%	66%	16.1%	1515	26.4	—	—
2	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	P6	4.92	16.2%	27.5%	39%	63%	12.5%	1501	24.6	—	—
3	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P16	4.72	26.6%	30.5%	34%	52%	19.2%	1513	28.9	—	—
4	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	P7	4.67	12.0%	23.8%	35%	58%	10.0%	1505	24.2	—	—
5	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	P18	4.67	19.3%	27.6%	36%	53%	17.4%	1494	28.9	—	—
6	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	62	Anthony Alfredo	Beard Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	78	B.J. McLeod	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	44	J.J. Yeley	NY Racing Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.95	8.0%	51%	66%	77%	84%	16.1%
2	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	4.92	16.2%	39%	63%	76%	88%	12.5%
3	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	4.72	26.6%	34%	52%	70%	81%	19.2%
4	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	4.67	12.0%	35%	58%	77%	90%	10.0%
5	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	4.67	19.3%	36%	53%	74%	83%	17.4%
6	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	62	Anthony Alfredo	Beard Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	78	B.J. McLeod	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	44	J.J. Yeley	NY Racing Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P13	4.95	1515	1499	26.4	+7.0	-8.8
2	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	P6	4.92	1501	1508	24.6	+14.0	-1.5
3	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P16	4.72	1513	1513	28.9	+4.0	+4.3
4	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	P7	4.67	1505	1510	24.2	+13.0	-13.5
5	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	P18	4.67	1494	1510	28.9	+2.0	+8.0
6	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	62	Anthony Alfredo	Beard Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	78	B.J. McLeod	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	44	J.J. Yeley	NY Racing Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-03-17 08:55