RACE 9 / 36 2025 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING

Bristol Motor SpeedwayFood City 500

DateSunday, April 13, 2025

Track TypeShort Track

Field39 drivers

SHORT TRACK

Bristol Motor Speedway Updated 2026-03-17 08:55

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-03-17 08:55

Best by Expected Points · Win 30.6%

Denny Hamlin • #11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P4).

Best Win odds: Christopher Bell (32.3%) · Lowest DNF risk: Kyle Larson (2.1%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Denny Hamlin

Win 30.6% • Top-5 71% • EP 6.86

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

◦ Subscriber

Safest Play

Denny Hamlin

Top-10 prob 85% • DNF 3.5%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

◦ Subscriber

Upside Driver

Chase Elliott

Win prob 20.7% • Started P20

Risk Flag

Josh Bilicki

DNF prob 32.8%

Race Confidence

HIGH • 85/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of short track

85/100

HIGH

Short ovals reward consistency and qualifying position. Model has historically been most accurate at this track type.

Win pick hit rate

17%

Top-5 hit rate

52%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.56

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win 30.6%

Top-5 71%

Exp pts 6.86

Start P4

Driver ELO 1516

Track-type ELO 1515

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P4).

#20 Joe Gibbs Racing

Christopher Bell

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#20 Joe Gibbs Racing

Christopher Bell

Win 32.3%

Top-5 52%

Exp pts 6.43

Start P7

Driver ELO 1515

Track-type ELO 1514

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, top-10 starting spot (P7).

#5 Hendrick Motorsports

Kyle Larson

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#5 Hendrick Motorsports

Kyle Larson

Win 16.6%

Top-5 54%

Exp pts 5.83

Start P3

Driver ELO 1492

Track-type ELO 1513

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, front-row start (P3), strong organization rating.

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#20Christopher Bell

32.3%

#11Denny Hamlin

30.6%

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

50.6%

#20Christopher Bell

41.9%

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#48Alex Bowman

— SUB

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

70.6%

#5Kyle Larson

53.8%

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#48Alex Bowman

— SUB

#54Ty Gibbs

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

85.3%

#20Christopher Bell

82.5%

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#48Alex Bowman

— SUB

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

Best Value

#11Denny Hamlin

6.62

#20Christopher Bell

6.11

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#48Alex Bowman

— SUB

#12Ryan Blaney

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#66Josh Bilicki

32.8%

#01Corey LaJoie

26.3%

#88Shane van Gisbergen

— SUB

#33Jesse Love

— SUB

#23Bubba Wallace

— SUB

05 Full Projections

39 drivers • top 5 free39 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P4	6.86	30.6%	50.6%	71%	85%	3.5%	1516	25.8	—	—
2	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P7	6.43	32.3%	41.9%	52%	82%	4.9%	1515	25.8	—	—
3	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P3	5.83	16.6%	35.2%	54%	72%	2.1%	1492	28.4	—	—
4	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	P1	5.54	14.4%	31.5%	49%	72%	4.2%	1494	28.4	—	—
5	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	P5	5.41	18.1%	28.9%	40%	69%	3.9%	1514	24.1	—	—
6	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	33	Jesse Love	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	01	Corey LaJoie	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	66	Josh Bilicki	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	6.86	30.6%	71%	85%	93%	96%	3.5%
2	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	6.43	32.3%	52%	82%	91%	95%	4.9%
3	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	5.83	16.6%	54%	72%	92%	98%	2.1%
4	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	5.54	14.4%	49%	72%	87%	96%	4.2%
5	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	5.41	18.1%	40%	69%	86%	96%	3.9%
6	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	33	Jesse Love	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	01	Corey LaJoie	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	66	Josh Bilicki	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P4	6.86	1516	1515	25.8	+16.0	+8.3
2	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P7	6.43	1515	1514	25.8	+13.0	+0.8
3	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P3	5.83	1492	1513	28.4	+17.0	+4.7
4	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	P1	5.54	1494	1499	28.4	+19.0	-3.7
5	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	P5	5.41	1514	1510	24.1	+15.0	+8.2
6	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	33	Jesse Love	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	01	Corey LaJoie	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	66	Josh Bilicki	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-03-17 08:55