RACE 8 / 36 2025 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING

Darlington RacewayGoodyear 400

DateSunday, April 6, 2025

Track TypeIntermediate

Field38 drivers

INTERMEDIATE

Darlington Raceway Updated 2026-03-17 08:55

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-03-17 08:55

Best by Expected Points · Win 44.1%

Denny Hamlin • #11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P3).

Best Win odds: Bubba Wallace (45.6%) · Lowest DNF risk: Austin Cindric (6.0%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Denny Hamlin

Win 44.1% • Top-5 62% • EP 6.70

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

◦ Subscriber

Safest Play

Tyler Reddick

Top-10 prob 77% • DNF 7.8%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

◦ Subscriber

Upside Driver

Alex Bowman

Win prob 17.1% • Started P33

Risk Flag

J.J. Yeley

DNF prob 30.3%

Race Confidence

HIGH • 75/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of intermediate

75/100

HIGH

Intermediates reward downforce-era setups and clean stops. Model performs reliably here.

Win pick hit rate

33%

Top-5 hit rate

43%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.50

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win 44.1%

Top-5 62%

Exp pts 6.70

Start P3

Driver ELO 1515

Track-type ELO 1512

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P3).

#23 23XI Racing

Bubba Wallace

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#23 23XI Racing

Bubba Wallace

Win 45.6%

Top-5 56%

Exp pts 6.61

Start P5

Driver ELO 1514

Track-type ELO 1513

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P5).

#45 23XI Racing

Tyler Reddick

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#45 23XI Racing

Tyler Reddick

Win 29.4%

Top-5 59%

Exp pts 6.26

Start P7

Driver ELO 1508

Track-type ELO 1510

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-10 starting spot (P7), strong organization rating.

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#23Bubba Wallace

45.6%

#11Denny Hamlin

44.1%

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

52.9%

#23Bubba Wallace

51.0%

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

61.7%

#45Tyler Reddick

58.8%

#23Bubba Wallace

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#45Tyler Reddick

77.5%

#23Bubba Wallace

76.6%

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

Best Value

#11Denny Hamlin

6.11

#23Bubba Wallace

5.85

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#44J.J. Yeley

30.3%

#35Riley Herbst

26.8%

#33Austin Hill

— SUB

#88Shane van Gisbergen

— SUB

#21Josh Berry

— SUB

05 Full Projections

38 drivers • top 5 free38 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P3	6.70	44.1%	52.9%	62%	75%	8.8%	1515	25.4	—	—
2	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	P5	6.61	45.6%	51.0%	56%	77%	11.5%	1514	25.6	—	—
3	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	P7	6.26	29.4%	44.1%	59%	77%	7.8%	1508	25.6	—	—
4	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P19	5.83	31.6%	41.2%	51%	66%	12.8%	1513	28.4	—	—
5	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P4	5.53	33.2%	38.6%	44%	63%	14.2%	1511	24.7	—	—
6	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	44	J.J. Yeley	NY Racing Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	6.70	44.1%	62%	75%	86%	91%	8.8%
2	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	6.61	45.6%	56%	77%	85%	89%	11.5%
3	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	6.26	29.4%	59%	77%	87%	92%	7.8%
4	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	5.83	31.6%	51%	66%	83%	87%	12.8%
5	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	5.53	33.2%	44%	63%	77%	86%	14.2%
6	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	44	J.J. Yeley	NY Racing Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P3	6.70	1515	1512	25.4	+16.5	+6.0
2	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	P5	6.61	1514	1513	25.6	+14.5	-0.7
3	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	P7	6.26	1508	1510	25.6	+12.5	-8.8
4	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P19	5.83	1513	1514	28.4	+0.5	-0.7
5	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	P4	5.53	1511	1513	24.7	+15.5	-0.8
6	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	33	Austin Hill	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	44	J.J. Yeley	NY Racing Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

33 more drivers behind the paywall.

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-03-17 08:55