RACE 7 / 36 2025 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING

Martinsville SpeedwayCook Out 400

DateSunday, March 30, 2025

Track TypeShort Track

Field38 drivers

SHORT TRACK

Martinsville Speedway Updated 2026-03-17 08:55

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-03-17 08:55

Best by Expected Points · Win 62.7%

Denny Hamlin • #11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P5).

Lowest DNF risk: Chase Elliott (2.3%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Denny Hamlin

Win 62.7% • Top-5 71% • EP 7.79

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

◦ Subscriber

Safest Play

Denny Hamlin

Top-10 prob 85% • DNF 2.5%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

◦ Subscriber

Upside Driver

Josh Berry

Win prob 20.6% • Started P14

Risk Flag

Burt Myers

DNF prob 50.0%

Race Confidence

HIGH • 94/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of short track

94/100

HIGH

Short ovals reward consistency and qualifying position. Model has historically been most accurate at this track type.

Win pick hit rate

17%

Top-5 hit rate

60%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.60

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win 62.7%

Top-5 71%

Exp pts 7.79

Start P5

Driver ELO 1513

Track-type ELO 1514

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P5).

#5 Hendrick Motorsports

Kyle Larson

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#5 Hendrick Motorsports

Kyle Larson

Win 26.7%

Top-5 69%

Exp pts 6.61

Start P4

Driver ELO 1515

Track-type ELO 1514

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P4).

#9 Hendrick Motorsports

Chase Elliott

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#9 Hendrick Motorsports

Chase Elliott

Win 17.7%

Top-5 68%

Exp pts 6.36

Start P2

Driver ELO 1504

Track-type ELO 1509

Why this pick Why: front-row start (P2), strong organization rating, recent strong start-finish gain at this track type.

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

62.7%

#5Kyle Larson

26.7%

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

#21Josh Berry

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

66.9%

#5Kyle Larson

47.8%

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

71.0%

#5Kyle Larson

69.0%

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

85.2%

#9Chase Elliott

83.5%

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

Best Value

#11Denny Hamlin

7.59

#5Kyle Larson

6.39

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#50Burt Myers

50.0%

#35Riley Herbst

25.1%

#66Casey Mears

— SUB

#88Shane van Gisbergen

— SUB

#51Cody Ware

— SUB

05 Full Projections

38 drivers • top 5 free38 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P5	7.79	62.7%	66.9%	71%	85%	2.5%	1513	24.9	—	—
2	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P4	6.61	26.7%	47.8%	69%	82%	3.4%	1515	28.5	—	—
3	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	P2	6.36	17.7%	42.7%	68%	84%	2.3%	1504	28.5	—	—
4	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P1	6.34	26.5%	43.5%	61%	79%	3.2%	1497	24.9	—	—
5	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P10	6.25	22.3%	42.8%	63%	79%	3.6%	1508	28.5	—	—
6	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	66	Casey Mears	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	50	Burt Myers	Team AmeriVet	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	7.79	62.7%	71%	85%	90%	98%	2.5%
2	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	6.61	26.7%	69%	82%	91%	97%	3.4%
3	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	6.36	17.7%	68%	84%	91%	98%	2.3%
4	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	6.34	26.5%	61%	79%	89%	97%	3.2%
5	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	6.25	22.3%	63%	79%	88%	96%	3.6%
6	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	66	Casey Mears	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	50	Burt Myers	Team AmeriVet	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P5	7.79	1513	1514	24.9	+14.5	+6.0
2	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P4	6.61	1515	1514	28.5	+15.5	+7.3
3	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	P2	6.36	1504	1509	28.5	+17.5	-3.5
4	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P1	6.34	1497	1515	24.9	+18.5	+1.5
5	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P10	6.25	1508	1512	28.5	+9.5	-6.7
6	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	66	Casey Mears	Garage 66	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	50	Burt Myers	Team AmeriVet	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-03-17 08:55