RACE 6 / 36 2025 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING

Homestead-Miami SpeedwayStraight Talk Wireless 400

DateSunday, March 23, 2025

Track TypeIntermediate

Field37 drivers

INTERMEDIATE

Homestead-Miami Speedway Updated 2026-03-17 08:55

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-03-17 08:55

Best by Expected Points · Win 34.1%

Alex Bowman • #48 Hendrick Motorsports

Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P1).

Lowest DNF risk: Todd Gilliland (7.5%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Alex Bowman

Win 34.1% • Top-5 48% • EP 5.96

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

◦ Subscriber

Safest Play

Tyler Reddick

Top-10 prob 69% • DNF 7.9%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

◦ Subscriber

Upside Driver

Josh Berry

Win prob 19.3% • Started P2

Risk Flag

J.J. Yeley

DNF prob 29.2%

Race Confidence

HIGH • 75/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of intermediate

75/100

HIGH

Intermediates reward downforce-era setups and clean stops. Model performs reliably here.

Win pick hit rate

33%

Top-5 hit rate

43%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.50

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#48 Hendrick Motorsports

Alex Bowman

Win 34.1%

Top-5 48%

Exp pts 5.96

Start P1

Driver ELO 1512

Track-type ELO 1511

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P1).

#45 23XI Racing

Tyler Reddick

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#45 23XI Racing

Tyler Reddick

Win 8.9%

Top-5 55%

Exp pts 5.41

Start P20

Driver ELO 1500

Track-type ELO 1498

Why this pick Why: strong organization rating, recent strong start-finish gain at this track type.

#5 Hendrick Motorsports

Kyle Larson

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#5 Hendrick Motorsports

Kyle Larson

Win 20.6%

Top-5 49%

Exp pts 5.31

Start P14

Driver ELO 1510

Track-type ELO 1508

Why this pick Why: top-tier driver ELO, strong organization rating, recent strong start-finish gain at this track type.

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#48Alex Bowman

34.1%

#24William Byron

20.9%

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#2Austin Cindric

— SUB

#21Josh Berry

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#48Alex Bowman

41.2%

#5Kyle Larson

35.0%

#2Austin Cindric

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#45Tyler Reddick

55.4%

#5Kyle Larson

49.4%

#48Alex Bowman

— SUB

#2Austin Cindric

— SUB

#23Bubba Wallace

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#45Tyler Reddick

69.5%

#48Alex Bowman

68.7%

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#23Bubba Wallace

— SUB

#2Austin Cindric

— SUB

Best Value

#48Alex Bowman

5.47

#45Tyler Reddick

4.98

#2Austin Cindric

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

#23Bubba Wallace

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#44J.J. Yeley

29.2%

#60Ryan Preece

26.8%

#51Cody Ware

— SUB

#1Ross Chastain

— SUB

#99Daniel Suarez

— SUB

05 Full Projections

37 drivers • top 5 free37 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	P1	5.96	34.1%	41.2%	48%	69%	8.3%	1512	27.9	—	—
2	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	P20	5.41	8.9%	32.1%	55%	69%	7.9%	1500	25.8	—	—
3	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P14	5.31	20.6%	35.0%	49%	64%	15.2%	1510	27.9	—	—
4	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	P8	5.22	20.6%	32.5%	44%	63%	9.7%	1513	24.3	—	—
5	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P5	5.14	20.9%	32.0%	43%	62%	9.5%	1514	27.9	—	—
6	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	44	J.J. Yeley	NY Racing Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	5.96	34.1%	48%	69%	84%	92%	8.3%
2	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	5.41	8.9%	55%	69%	86%	92%	7.9%
3	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	5.31	20.6%	49%	64%	78%	85%	15.2%
4	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	5.22	20.6%	44%	63%	78%	90%	9.7%
5	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	5.14	20.9%	43%	62%	76%	91%	9.5%
6	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	44	J.J. Yeley	NY Racing Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	P1	5.96	1512	1511	27.9	+18.0	+0.0
2	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	P20	5.41	1500	1498	25.8	-1.0	-8.0
3	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P14	5.31	1510	1508	27.9	+5.0	-8.0
4	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	P8	5.22	1513	1512	24.3	+11.0	-10.8
5	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P5	5.14	1514	1514	27.9	+14.0	+3.5
6	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	44	J.J. Yeley	NY Racing Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

32 more drivers behind the paywall.

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-03-17 08:55