RACE 5 / 36 2025 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING

Las Vegas Motor SpeedwayPennzoil 400 Presented by Jiffy Lube

DateSunday, March 16, 2025

Track TypeIntermediate

Field36 drivers

INTERMEDIATE

Las Vegas Motor Speedway Updated 2026-03-17 08:55

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-03-17 08:55

Best by Expected Points · Win 32.4%

Denny Hamlin • #11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, strong organization rating.

Lowest DNF risk: Bubba Wallace (7.4%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Denny Hamlin

Win 32.4% • Top-5 50% • EP 5.99

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

◦ Subscriber

Safest Play

Denny Hamlin

Top-10 prob 71% • DNF 10.3%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

◦ Subscriber

Upside Driver

Kyle Busch

Win prob 21.4% • Started P4

Risk Flag

Kyle Larson

DNF prob 20.2%

Race Confidence

HIGH • 75/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of intermediate

75/100

HIGH

Intermediates reward downforce-era setups and clean stops. Model performs reliably here.

Win pick hit rate

33%

Top-5 hit rate

43%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.50

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#11 Joe Gibbs Racing

Denny Hamlin

Win 32.4%

Top-5 50%

Exp pts 5.99

Start P15

Driver ELO 1515

Track-type ELO 1511

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, strong organization rating.

#22 Team Penske

Joey Logano

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#22 Team Penske

Joey Logano

Win 20.6%

Top-5 44%

Exp pts 5.26

Start P2

Driver ELO 1508

Track-type ELO 1509

Why this pick Why: front-row start (P2), strong organization rating.

#20 Joe Gibbs Racing

Christopher Bell

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#20 Joe Gibbs Racing

Christopher Bell

Win 14.6%

Top-5 54%

Exp pts 5.21

Start P13

Driver ELO 1516

Track-type ELO 1515

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, strong organization rating. Watch-out: elevated DNF risk (18%).

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

32.4%

#9Chase Elliott

27.0%

#8Kyle Busch

— SUB

#22Joey Logano

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

41.1%

#9Chase Elliott

34.3%

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#22Joey Logano

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#20Christopher Bell

53.7%

#11Denny Hamlin

49.8%

#24William Byron

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

70.8%

#20Christopher Bell

66.8%

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#22Joey Logano

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

Best Value

#11Denny Hamlin

5.37

#22Joey Logano

4.71

#24William Byron

— SUB

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#5Kyle Larson

20.2%

#47Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

20.1%

#35Riley Herbst

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#77Carson Hocevar

— SUB

05 Full Projections

36 drivers • top 5 free36 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P15	5.99	32.4%	41.1%	50%	71%	10.3%	1515	24.9	—	—
2	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	P2	5.26	20.6%	32.3%	44%	64%	10.4%	1508	24.3	—	—
3	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P13	5.21	14.6%	34.2%	54%	67%	18.5%	1516	24.9	—	—
4	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P10	5.11	19.1%	32.0%	45%	66%	20.2%	1515	27.9	—	—
5	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	P16	5.11	27.0%	34.3%	42%	55%	11.3%	1509	27.9	—	—
6	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	5.99	32.4%	50%	71%	85%	90%	10.3%
2	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	5.26	20.6%	44%	64%	79%	90%	10.4%
3	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	5.21	14.6%	54%	67%	77%	82%	18.5%
4	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	5.11	19.1%	45%	66%	76%	80%	20.2%
5	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	5.11	27.0%	42%	55%	74%	89%	11.3%
6	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P15	5.99	1515	1511	24.9	+3.5	+8.2
2	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	P2	5.26	1508	1509	24.3	+16.5	+1.8
3	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P13	5.21	1516	1515	24.9	+5.5	+8.5
4	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P10	5.11	1515	1513	27.9	+8.5	-8.2
5	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	P16	5.11	1509	1502	27.9	+2.5	+5.3
6	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-03-17 08:55