RACE 4 / 36 2025 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING

Phoenix RacewayShriners Children's 500

DateSunday, March 9, 2025

Track TypeShort Track

Field37 drivers

SHORT TRACK

Phoenix Raceway Updated 2026-03-17 08:54

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-03-17 08:54

Best by Expected Points · Win 42.2%

Kyle Larson • #5 Hendrick Motorsports

Why: strong track-type ELO, strong organization rating.

Lowest DNF risk: Joey Logano (1.8%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Kyle Larson

Win 42.2% • Top-5 61% • EP 6.59

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

◦ Subscriber

Safest Play

Joey Logano

Top-10 prob 83% • DNF 1.8%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

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Upside Driver

Josh Berry

Win prob 23.5% • Started P4

Risk Flag

Katherine Legge

DNF prob 41.6%

Race Confidence

HIGH • 85/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of short track

85/100

HIGH

Short ovals reward consistency and qualifying position. Model has historically been most accurate at this track type.

Win pick hit rate

17%

Top-5 hit rate

52%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.56

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#5 Hendrick Motorsports

Kyle Larson

Win 42.2%

Top-5 61%

Exp pts 6.59

Start P17

Driver ELO 1495

Track-type ELO 1514

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, strong organization rating.

#22 Team Penske

Joey Logano

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#22 Team Penske

Joey Logano

Win 17.1%

Top-5 72%

Exp pts 6.40

Start P2

Driver ELO 1500

Track-type ELO 1515

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, front-row start (P2), strong organization rating.

#45 23XI Racing

Tyler Reddick

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#45 23XI Racing

Tyler Reddick

Win 37.6%

Top-5 52%

Exp pts 6.38

Start P9

Driver ELO 1514

Track-type ELO 1513

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, top-10 starting spot (P9).

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#5Kyle Larson

42.2%

#45Tyler Reddick

37.6%

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

#21Josh Berry

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#5Kyle Larson

51.8%

#45Tyler Reddick

44.6%

#22Joey Logano

— SUB

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#22Joey Logano

71.6%

#24William Byron

65.8%

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#22Joey Logano

83.3%

#24William Byron

77.7%

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

Best Value

#22Joey Logano

6.29

#5Kyle Larson

6.23

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

#45Tyler Reddick

— SUB

#24William Byron

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#78Katherine Legge

41.6%

#54Ty Gibbs

20.9%

#51Cody Ware

— SUB

#3Austin Dillon

— SUB

#48Alex Bowman

— SUB

05 Full Projections

37 drivers • top 5 free37 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P17	6.59	42.2%	51.8%	61%	69%	5.5%	1495	27.4	—	—
2	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	P2	6.40	17.1%	44.3%	72%	83%	1.8%	1500	24.1	—	—
3	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	P9	6.38	37.6%	44.6%	52%	74%	5.6%	1514	26.3	—	—
4	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	P6	6.30	28.1%	42.6%	57%	77%	3.4%	1513	27.4	—	—
5	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P1	6.06	17.9%	41.8%	66%	78%	5.3%	1516	27.4	—	—
6	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	78	Katherine Legge	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	6.59	42.2%	61%	69%	88%	94%	5.5%
2	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	6.40	17.1%	72%	83%	90%	98%	1.8%
3	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	6.38	37.6%	52%	74%	89%	94%	5.6%
4	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	6.30	28.1%	57%	77%	90%	97%	3.4%
5	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	6.06	17.9%	66%	78%	85%	95%	5.3%
6	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	78	Katherine Legge	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P17	6.59	1495	1514	27.4	+2.0	-0.5
2	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	P2	6.40	1500	1515	24.1	+17.0	-6.0
3	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	P9	6.38	1514	1513	26.3	+10.0	-0.8
4	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	P6	6.30	1513	1511	27.4	+13.0	-1.8
5	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P1	6.06	1516	1514	27.4	+18.0	-5.5
6	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	78	Katherine Legge	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

32 more drivers behind the paywall.

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-03-17 08:54