RACE 3 / 36 2025 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING

Circuit of the AmericasEchopark Automotive Grand Prix

DateSunday, March 2, 2025

Track TypeRoad Course

Field37 drivers

ROAD COURSE

Circuit of the Americas Updated 2026-03-17 08:54

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-03-17 08:54

Best by Expected Points · Win 33.4%

Chase Elliott • #9 Hendrick Motorsports

Why: strong track-type ELO, front-row start (P3), strong organization rating.

Lowest DNF risk: Daniel Suarez (3.9%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Chase Elliott

Win 33.4% • Top-5 60% • EP 6.22

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

◦ Subscriber

Safest Play

Tyler Reddick

Top-10 prob 71% • DNF 4.6%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

◦ Subscriber

Upside Driver

A.J. Allmendinger

Win prob 26.5% • Started P12

Risk Flag

Cole Custer

DNF prob 27.6%

Race Confidence

HIGH • 76/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L10 of road course

76/100

HIGH

Road courses introduce more variance. Specialists outperform the field; cautions tend to cluster late.

Win pick hit rate

30%

Top-5 hit rate

46%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.50

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#9 Hendrick Motorsports

Chase Elliott

Win 33.4%

Top-5 60%

Exp pts 6.22

Start P3

Driver ELO 1502

Track-type ELO 1512

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, front-row start (P3), strong organization rating.

#45 23XI Racing

Tyler Reddick

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#45 23XI Racing

Tyler Reddick

Win 32.3%

Top-5 55%

Exp pts 6.09

Start P1

Driver ELO 1504

Track-type ELO 1509

Why this pick Why: front-row start (P1), strong organization rating, recent strong start-finish gain at this track type.

#5 Hendrick Motorsports

Kyle Larson

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#5 Hendrick Motorsports

Kyle Larson

Win 21.9%

Top-5 51%

Exp pts 5.49

Start P7

Driver ELO 1514

Track-type ELO 1515

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, top-10 starting spot (P7).

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#9Chase Elliott

33.4%

#45Tyler Reddick

32.3%

#16A.J. Allmendinger

— SUB

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#1Ross Chastain

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#9Chase Elliott

46.5%

#45Tyler Reddick

43.8%

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#16A.J. Allmendinger

— SUB

#1Ross Chastain

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#9Chase Elliott

59.7%

#45Tyler Reddick

55.3%

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#23Bubba Wallace

— SUB

#99Daniel Suarez

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#45Tyler Reddick

71.3%

#9Chase Elliott

70.0%

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#23Bubba Wallace

— SUB

#99Daniel Suarez

— SUB

Best Value

#9Chase Elliott

5.92

#45Tyler Reddick

5.81

#5Kyle Larson

— SUB

#99Daniel Suarez

— SUB

#1Ross Chastain

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#41Cole Custer

27.6%

#35Riley Herbst

22.6%

#8Kyle Busch

— SUB

#34Todd Gilliland

— SUB

#77Carson Hocevar

— SUB

05 Full Projections

37 drivers • top 5 free37 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	P3	6.22	33.4%	46.5%	60%	70%	4.8%	1502	27.2	—	—
2	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	P1	6.09	32.3%	43.8%	55%	71%	4.6%	1504	26.0	—	—
3	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P7	5.49	21.9%	36.3%	51%	68%	7.8%	1514	27.2	—	—
4	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	P9	4.96	21.6%	30.1%	39%	59%	9.8%	1511	23.7	—	—
5	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	P2	4.87	7.5%	25.7%	44%	64%	11.3%	1510	26.0	—	—
6	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	87	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	6.22	33.4%	60%	70%	84%	95%	4.8%
2	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	6.09	32.3%	55%	71%	82%	95%	4.6%
3	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	5.49	21.9%	51%	68%	77%	92%	7.8%
4	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	4.96	21.6%	39%	59%	73%	90%	9.8%
5	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	4.87	7.5%	44%	64%	80%	89%	11.3%
6	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	87	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	P3	6.22	1502	1512	27.2	+16.0	-2.3
2	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	P1	6.09	1504	1509	26.0	+18.0	-5.2
3	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	P7	5.49	1514	1515	27.2	+12.0	+0.0
4	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	P9	4.96	1511	1498	23.7	+10.0	-3.0
5	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	P2	4.87	1510	1509	26.0	+17.0	-1.8
6	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	87	Connor Zilisch	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-03-17 08:54