RACE 2 / 36 2025 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING

EchoPark SpeedwayAmbetter Health 400

DateSunday, February 23, 2025

Track TypeIntermediate

Field39 drivers

INTERMEDIATE

EchoPark Speedway Updated 2026-03-17 08:54

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-03-17 08:54

Best by Expected Points · Win 43.5%

Ryan Blaney • #12 Team Penske

Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P1).

Lowest DNF risk: Bubba Wallace (7.1%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

Ryan Blaney

Win 43.5% • Top-5 56% • EP 6.42

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

◦ Subscriber

Safest Play

Ryan Blaney

Top-10 prob 73% • DNF 11.0%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

◦ Subscriber

Upside Driver

Joey Logano

Win prob 22.2% • Started P4

Risk Flag

J.J. Yeley

DNF prob 28.3%

Race Confidence

HIGH • 75/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L12 of intermediate

75/100

HIGH

Intermediates reward downforce-era setups and clean stops. Model performs reliably here.

Win pick hit rate

33%

Top-5 hit rate

43%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.50

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#12 Team Penske

Ryan Blaney

Win 43.5%

Top-5 56%

Exp pts 6.42

Start P1

Driver ELO 1511

Track-type ELO 1513

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P1).

#9 Hendrick Motorsports

Chase Elliott

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

Unlock the full race sheet

#9 Hendrick Motorsports

Chase Elliott

Win 36.9%

Top-5 52%

Exp pts 5.96

Start P19

Driver ELO 1506

Track-type ELO 1511

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, strong organization rating.

#20 Joe Gibbs Racing

Christopher Bell

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

Unlock the full race sheet

#20 Joe Gibbs Racing

Christopher Bell

Win 22.9%

Top-5 46%

Exp pts 5.22

Start P32

Driver ELO 1496

Track-type ELO 1513

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, qualified well above field average, strong organization rating.

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#12Ryan Blaney

43.5%

#9Chase Elliott

36.9%

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#22Joey Logano

— SUB

#8Kyle Busch

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#12Ryan Blaney

50.0%

#9Chase Elliott

44.7%

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#23Bubba Wallace

— SUB

#2Austin Cindric

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#12Ryan Blaney

56.5%

#23Bubba Wallace

53.7%

#9Chase Elliott

— SUB

#2Austin Cindric

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#12Ryan Blaney

73.1%

#9Chase Elliott

65.4%

#23Bubba Wallace

— SUB

#2Austin Cindric

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

Best Value

#12Ryan Blaney

5.71

#9Chase Elliott

5.33

#23Bubba Wallace

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

#22Joey Logano

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#44J.J. Yeley

28.3%

#5Kyle Larson

24.1%

#16A.J. Allmendinger

— SUB

#8Kyle Busch

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

05 Full Projections

39 drivers • top 5 free39 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	P1	6.42	43.5%	50.0%	56%	73%	11.0%	1511	23.9	—	—
2	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	P19	5.96	36.9%	44.7%	52%	65%	10.5%	1506	27.1	—	—
3	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P32	5.22	22.9%	34.4%	46%	60%	10.3%	1496	24.2	—	—
4	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	P14	5.19	6.4%	30.1%	54%	65%	7.1%	1498	26.1	—	—
5	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	P2	5.05	10.8%	28.8%	47%	63%	10.5%	1512	23.9	—	—
6	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	01	Corey LaJoie	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	78	B.J. McLeod	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	44	J.J. Yeley	NY Racing Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	6.42	43.5%	56%	73%	82%	89%	11.0%
2	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	5.96	36.9%	52%	65%	80%	89%	10.5%
3	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	5.22	22.9%	46%	60%	76%	90%	10.3%
4	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	5.19	6.4%	54%	65%	85%	93%	7.1%
5	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	5.05	10.8%	47%	63%	81%	90%	10.5%
6	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	01	Corey LaJoie	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	78	B.J. McLeod	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	44	J.J. Yeley	NY Racing Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	P1	6.42	1511	1513	23.9	+19.0	-2.5
2	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	P19	5.96	1506	1511	27.1	+1.0	+4.0
3	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	P32	5.22	1496	1513	24.2	-12.0	-2.0
4	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	P14	5.19	1498	1503	26.1	+6.0	-8.0
5	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	P2	5.05	1512	1497	23.9	+18.0	-7.2
6	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	01	Corey LaJoie	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	78	B.J. McLeod	Live Fast Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	44	J.J. Yeley	NY Racing Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

34 more drivers behind the paywall.

Full sortable table, all probabilities, CSV download, and the Betting/DFS lenses ship with the Race Week Pass.

Download CSV ◦ subscriber Unlock the full race sheet

Full board.

All 39 drivers, every probability, plus CSV.

Download CSV ↓

Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-03-17 08:54