RACE 1 / 36 2025 CUP SERIES • POST-QUALIFYING

Daytona International SpeedwayDAYTONA 500

DateSunday, February 16, 2025

Track TypeSuperspeedway

Field41 drivers

SUPERSPEEDWAY

Daytona International Speedway Updated 2026-03-17 08:54

01 Model Brief

Generated 2026-03-17 08:54

Best by Expected Points · Win 30.0%

William Byron • #24 Hendrick Motorsports

Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P5).

Best Win odds: Erik Jones (36.5%) · See all picks →

EP Expected Points — Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0. Higher = better projected finish.

Win Profile

William Byron

Win 30.0% • Top-5 53% • EP 5.71

Safest Play

— — — — —

Top-10 prob • DNF risk

◦ Subscriber

Safest Play

Denny Hamlin

Top-10 prob 66% • DNF 13.2%

Upside Driver

— — — — —

Win prob • Starting grid

◦ Subscriber

Upside Driver

Chase Briscoe

Win prob 15.8% • Started P1

Risk Flag

Helio Castroneves

DNF prob 42.5%

Race Confidence

CHAOS • 18/100

Confidence blends this track type's historical accuracy, race volatility, and model calibration.

02 Track Confidence

L7 of superspeedway

18/100

CHAOS RACE

Plate-race outcomes diverge from the model — drafting luck and late wrecks dominate. Honesty over confidence.

Win pick hit rate

14%

Top-5 hit rate

14%

Rank fit (ρ)

0.10

Chaos race Superspeedway results historically diverge from the model. Survival probability matters more than expected finish — read this card as guidance, not a forecast.

03 Driver Spotlight

Top 3 by EP

#24 Hendrick Motorsports

William Byron

Win 30.0%

Top-5 53%

Exp pts 5.71

Start P5

Driver ELO 1514

Track-type ELO 1512

Why this pick Why: strong track-type ELO, top-tier driver ELO, front-row start (P5).

#17 RFK Racing

Chris Buescher

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

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Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#17 RFK Racing

Chris Buescher

Win 24.4%

Top-5 44%

Exp pts 5.29

Start P6

Driver ELO 1509

Track-type ELO 1504

Why this pick Why: top-10 starting spot (P6), strong organization rating.

#23 23XI Racing

Bubba Wallace

Win —

Top-5 —

Exp pts —

Start —

Driver ELO —

Track-type ELO —

Why this pick Watch this driver's full breakdown — track-history, ELO trend, and risk flags — with a subscription.

Subscriber Spotlight

Full driver breakdowns

Why this pick, watch-outs, and the features driving the rank.

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#23 23XI Racing

Bubba Wallace

Win 28.6%

Top-5 46%

Exp pts 5.24

Start P3

Driver ELO 1510

Track-type ELO 1508

Why this pick Why: front-row start (P3), strong organization rating. Watch-out: elevated DNF risk (21%).

04 Quick Picks

Top 2 free • full list w/ subscriber Full ranked picks · subscriber view

Best Win Picks

#43Erik Jones

36.5%

#24William Byron

30.0%

#23Bubba Wallace

— SUB

#17Chris Buescher

— SUB

#19Chase Briscoe

— SUB

Best Top-3 Picks

#24William Byron

41.3%

#43Erik Jones

40.1%

#23Bubba Wallace

— SUB

#17Chris Buescher

— SUB

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

Best Top-5 Picks

#24William Byron

52.6%

#11Denny Hamlin

46.3%

#23Bubba Wallace

— SUB

#17Chris Buescher

— SUB

#43Erik Jones

— SUB

Best Top-10 Picks

#11Denny Hamlin

65.9%

#24William Byron

65.0%

#17Chris Buescher

— SUB

#23Bubba Wallace

— SUB

#20Christopher Bell

— SUB

Best Value

#24William Byron

5.00

#17Chris Buescher

4.56

#11Denny Hamlin

— SUB

#23Bubba Wallace

— SUB

#43Erik Jones

— SUB

Highest DNF Risk

#91Helio Castroneves

42.5%

#71Michael McDowell

37.9%

#42John Hunter Nemechek

— SUB

#88Shane van Gisbergen

— SUB

#01Corey LaJoie

— SUB

05 Full Projections

41 drivers • top 5 free41 drivers • full board

Column key — what these meantap to open

Identity

Rank: Predicted finish rank by Expected Points. The model's #1 pick is at the top.
#: Car number.
Q: Qualifying / starting position.

Model output

EP: Expected Points — Σ(bucket probability × bucket points). The model's primary signal. Higher = better projected finish; range 0–10.
Win%: Probability of winning the race.
T3%: Probability of finishing 1st through 3rd (podium).
T5%: Probability of finishing in the top 5.
T10% / T20%: Probability of finishing in the top 10 / top 20.
Made%: Probability of finishing 21st or worse but actually completing the race — the "ran in the back" bucket.
DNF%: Probability of not finishing (crash, mechanical, etc.).

EP scoring: Win=10, Top5=7, Top10=5, Top20=3, Made=1, DNF=0.

Ratings & features

ELO / Drv ELO: Overall driver ELO rating. 1500 = field average; the spread across the field is roughly 30 points (1490–1520).
TT ELO: Driver ELO at this specific track type (superspeedway / intermediate / short track / road course).
Org: Organization equipment rating — recent finish history of the team's cars overall. Higher = stronger team.
QualΔ: Qualifying delta vs the field average for this race. Negative = qualified better than average.
SFΔ: Rolling start-finish delta at this track type. Negative = the driver typically gains positions over the course of similar races.

Track + practice

Track: Average finishing position at this specific track, with career starts in parentheses. Color: green ≤12, amber ≤18, dim otherwise. Hover shows best finish + last 3 starts.
Prac: Practice speed adjustment to the model's prediction. Positive (green) = faster than the field average in practice; negative (red) = slower. Dash means no practice session yet, or no data for that driver.

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Win%	T3%	T5%	T10%	DNF%	ELO	Org	Track	Prac
1	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P5	5.71	30.0%	41.3%	53%	65%	12.4%	1514	27.0	—	—
2	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	P6	5.29	24.4%	34.4%	44%	64%	13.8%	1509	25.7	—	—
3	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	P3	5.24	28.6%	37.1%	46%	62%	21.1%	1510	26.1	—	—
4	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	P4	5.10	36.5%	40.1%	44%	52%	23.1%	1500	15.9	—	—
5	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P8	4.79	5.3%	25.8%	46%	66%	13.2%	1508	24.3	—	—
6	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	56	Martin Truex Jr.	TRICON Garage	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	40	Justin Allgaier	JR Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	01	Corey LaJoie	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	91	Helio Castroneves	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
41	84	Jimmie Johnson	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	EP	Win%	T5%	T10%	T20%	Made%	DNF%
1	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	5.71	30.0%	53%	65%	79%	88%	12.4%
2	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	5.29	24.4%	44%	64%	77%	86%	13.8%
3	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	5.24	28.6%	46%	62%	72%	79%	21.1%
4	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	5.10	36.5%	44%	52%	66%	77%	23.1%
5	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	4.79	5.3%	46%	66%	76%	87%	13.2%
6	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	56	Martin Truex Jr.	TRICON Garage	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	40	Justin Allgaier	JR Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	01	Corey LaJoie	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	91	Helio Castroneves	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
41	84	Jimmie Johnson	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rank	#	Driver	Team	Q	EP	Drv ELO	TT ELO	Org	QualΔ	SFΔ
1	24	William Byron	Hendrick Motorsports	P5	5.71	1514	1512	27.0	+16.0	+6.8
2	17	Chris Buescher	RFK Racing	P6	5.29	1509	1504	25.7	+15.0	+0.8
3	23	Bubba Wallace	23XI Racing	P3	5.24	1510	1508	26.1	+18.0	+0.7
4	43	Erik Jones	Legacy Motor Club	P4	5.10	1500	1511	15.9	+17.0	+8.3
5	11	Denny Hamlin	Joe Gibbs Racing	P8	4.79	1508	1507	24.3	+13.0	-7.3
6	20	Christopher Bell	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
7	12	Ryan Blaney	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
8	22	Joey Logano	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
9	48	Alex Bowman	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
10	5	Kyle Larson	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
11	45	Tyler Reddick	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
12	1	Ross Chastain	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
13	9	Chase Elliott	Hendrick Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
14	2	Austin Cindric	Team Penske	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
15	19	Chase Briscoe	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
16	56	Martin Truex Jr.	TRICON Garage	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
17	16	A.J. Allmendinger	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
18	3	Austin Dillon	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
19	6	Brad Keselowski	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	47	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Hyak Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
21	99	Daniel Suarez	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
22	40	Justin Allgaier	JR Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
23	54	Ty Gibbs	Joe Gibbs Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
24	34	Todd Gilliland	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
25	7	Justin Haley	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
26	21	Josh Berry	Wood Brothers Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
27	42	John Hunter Nemechek	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
28	60	Ryan Preece	RFK Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
29	10	Ty Dillon	Kaulig Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
30	8	Kyle Busch	Richard Childress Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
31	38	Zane Smith	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
32	71	Michael McDowell	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
33	4	Noah Gragson	Front Row Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
34	88	Shane van Gisbergen	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
35	01	Corey LaJoie	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
36	77	Carson Hocevar	Spire Motorsports	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
37	35	Riley Herbst	23XI Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
38	91	Helio Castroneves	Trackhouse Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
39	41	Cole Custer	Haas Factory Team	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
40	51	Cody Ware	Rick Ware Racing	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
41	84	Jimmie Johnson	Legacy Motor Club	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

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Grid Walk • Cup Series Model v2 (XGBoost) Generated 2026-03-17 08:54